EXHIBIT 3.

Characteristics of older adults who stayed in or switched from Medicare Advantage (MA) to traditional Medicare (TM), or vice versa, in the 12 months before or after the onset of functional disability

	Started in MA		Started in TM
	Stayed in MA (n = 1,060)	Switched to TM (n = 126)	Stayed in TM (n = 2,244)	Switched to MA (n = 162)
demographic or household characteristics
Female	61.3%	56.6%	60.4%	57.3%
Mean age, years	78.1	77.7	78.6	75.1***
Nonwhite race	21.9%	46.5%***	15.0%	20.5%*
Live alone	30.0	40.2	32.4	37.7
Not married or partnered	47.4	51.1	45.7	49.9
Region
South	29.6	36.1	40.3	38.7
Northeast	18.1	12.8	17.4	9.6*
Midwest	24.9	26.4	24.1	32.1
West	27.5	24.7	18.2	19.7
Socioeconomic status
Did not complete high school	26.4	38.5*	20.2	26.5
Annual income less than $15,000	22.2	32.3*	18.2	24.7*
Enrolled in Medicaid	15.9	26.4**	15.0	21.2
clinical and health care characteristics
Impaired ADLs at survey following onset of disabilitya
0 (recovered)	45.7%	32.5%*	42.6%	48.3%
1	31.6	31.5	33.7	37.4
2 or more	22.8	36.1**	23.6	14.3**
No informal helpers if any impaired ADL	15.5	19.7	16.1	11.7
Probable or possible dementia	27.8	45.1***	28.5	21.4
Homebound status
Independent, not homebound	45.4	31.0**	45.7	49.6
Leaves home but needs assistance or has difficulty	37.8	37.3	35.6	40.2
Never or rarely leaves home	16.8	31.7***	18.7	10.2**
Depression per PHQ-2 scale	17.6	28.5*	21.2	24.6
Anxiety per GAD-2 scale	16.1	21.3	17.1	14.9
Self-reported health fair or poor	38.7	43.6	37.3	47.0*
Died in the 12 months after onset of disability	17.7	17.6	17.0	8.2***
Switch occurred during:
Open enrollment	—b	56.8	—b	59.5
Medicaid enrollment	—b	34.2	—b	26.2
Residence in a facilityc	—b	—d	—b	17.6***

source Authors’ analysis of data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) linked to Medicare claims for 2011–16. notes All proportions and statistical tests were adjusted using survey weights to account for survey design and sampling approach. Percentages might not sum to 100 because of rounding. ADLs are the number of activities of daily living the individual received help with. PHQ is Patient Health Questionnaire. GAD is Generalized Anxiety Disorder.

^aVariable from the NHATS from the year after that in which a new disability was reported.

^bNot applicable.

^cSkilled nursing facility or nursing home that provided long-term care.

^dNot reported because of the NHATS restrictions on data about samples smaller than 11.

^*p < 0.10

^**p < 0.05

^***p < 0.01