Table 4.
Performance of nonlinear algorithms with a representative dataset partitioning (30-min PH).
| Model Type | Model Class | Glucose Prediction Metric | Hypo Event Detection | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delay (min) | RMSE (mg/dL) | COD (%) | F1-Score | Precision | Recall | FP/Day | TG (min) | ||||
| Population | AR | 25(0) | 23.86(2.44) | 79.8(3.18) | 46.97(6.04) | 54.33(6.8) | 41.64(6.45) | 0.48(0.12) | 8.32(2.21) | ||
| ARMA | 25(0) | 23.75(2.43) | 79.86(3.17) | 47.17(5.81) | 54.77(6.8) | 41.69(6.16) | 0.47(0.12) | 8.09(2.25) | |||
| ARIMA | 25(0) | 23.96(2.42) | 80.06(3.16) | 50.27(5.18) | 58.24(6.32) | 44.51(5.7) | 0.44(0.13) | 9.18(1.8) | |||
| Individual | Population order | AR | 21.45(2.29) | 22.79(1.57) | 84.83(1.82) | 44.12(7.03) | 51.99(6.63) | 38.58(7.57) | 0.48(0.1) | 9.59(1.42) | |
| ARMA | 21.55(2.33) | 22.89(1.59) | 84.05(1.84) | 41.47(6.31) | 48.38(6.03) | 36.66(7.22) | 0.53(0.15) | 9.64(1.89) | |||
| ARIMA | 24.73(1.15) | 22.74(1.8) | 83.74(1.64) | 62.83(5.6) | 56.23(6.12) | 71.67(6.8) | 0.77(0.19) | 11.73(2.4) | |||
| Individual order | AR | 24.45(1.57) | 22.78(1.67) | 84.56(1.86) | 49.73(7.45) | 58.77(7) | 43.11(7.78) | 0,48(0.11) | 9.64(1.31) | ||
| ARMA | 25(0) | 22.83(1.57) | 83.79(1.67) | 32.5(7.45) | 44.25(7.33) | 25.98(7.15) | 0.44(0.1) | 9.95(2.28) | |||
| ARIMA | 25(0) | 22.13(1.58) | 84.36(1.77) | 70.5(3.69) | 61.04(4.33) | 83.64(3.89) | 0.73(0.13) | 10.18(0.94) | |||
| Individual order | AR | 25(0) | 22.97(2.37) | 83.4(3.17) | 28.96(12.78) | 42.07(11.36) | 23.05(12.16) | 0.39(0.12) | 8.64(4.93) | ||
| 30 min | ARMA | 25(0) | 23.04(2.22) | 82.7(3.3) | 24.25(11.17) | 37.49(11.5) | 18.85(10.4) | 0.4(0.13) | 9.55(4.77) | ||
| specific | ARIMA | 25(0) | 22.45(1.29) | 84.26(1.81) | 66.63(5.43) | 60.54(6.63) | 74.08(6.94) | 0.58(0.17) | 10(0) | ||
| Individual order | Day and night | AR | 25(0) | 24.15(1.53) | 78.87(1.83) | 27.12(4.38) | 37.31(7.97) | 21.31(3.14) | 0.32(0.07) | 10(4.11) | |
| ARMA | 25(0) | 24.44(1.59) | 78.75(2.18) | 25.57(4.96) | 36.95(10.63) | 19.55(3.39) | 0.28(0.08) | 9(4.04) | |||
| ARIMA | 25(0) | 22.93(1.31) | 83.68(1.56) | 66.37(5.09) | 68.36(5.64) | 64.98(7.33) | 0.41(0.13) | 9.86(0.75) | |||
| Regularized | AR | 21.82(2.43) | 22.87(1.63) | 83.1(2.11) | 43.53(6.27) | 48.5(5.59) | 39.72(7.2) | 0.57(0.1) | 11.36(2.54) | ||
| RLS | AR | 29.82(0.94) | 27.67(1.6) | 76.12(2.11) | 63.89(4.46) | 51.43(5) | 84.32(5.16) | 1.01(0.15) | 16.36(2.4) | ||
| Population | SVR | 24.45(2.99) | 22.72(2.75) | 81.69(8.39) | 50.81(13.21) | 47.59(11.73) | 44.15(12.83) | 0.56(0.33) | 9.79(3.03) | ||
| RegRF | 25.09(0.67) | 23.35(1.77) | 80.91(1.89) | 19.57(11.74) | 23.99(16.56) | 12.24(11.07) | 0.43(0.18) | 8.47(4.22) | |||
| fNN | 21.36(2.25) | 21.74(1.45) | 85.93(1.7) | 26.15(10.79) | 37.6(11.79) | 20.58(9.98) | 0.43(0.14) | 6.91(3.57) | |||
| LSTM | 24.55(1.45) | 22.97(1.99) | 83.25(2.28) | 20.52(13.13) | 40.6(15.03) | 15.03(12.46) | 0.28(0.15) | 8.32(6.16) | |||
| Individual | SVR | 24.27(3.52) | 22.6(4.62) | 82.89(11.77) | 53.82(12.75) | 59.91(11.02) | 49.54(12.67) | 0.47(0.35) | 11.15(3.26) | ||
| Population | RegRF | 25.55(1.57) | 23.38(2.02) | 78.23(2.06) | 31.37(9.65) | 47.11(8.59) | 24.42(9.5) | 0.36(0.12) | 11.91(3.04) | ||
| hyperparameters | fNN | 20.18(0.94) | 21.78(1.78) | 84.78(1.49) | 38.58(7.56) | 47.95(7.54) | 32.89(8.47) | 0.48(0.14) | 10.59(2.15) | ||
| SVR | 23.64(2.25) | 22.21(2.09) | 81.32(2.36) | 53.63(7.86) | 58.21(7.16) | 49.71(9.69) | 0.55(0.13) | 12.36(2.82) | |||
| Individual | RegRF | 25(0) | 26.06(2.02) | 77(2.31) | 40.34(6.68) | 50.81(7.04) | 33.93(7.24) | 0.44(0.11) | 15.36(3.38) | ||
| hyperparameters | fNN | 20.09(0.67) | 21.63(1.69) | 85.1(1.45) | 37.54(7.59) | 47.02(8) | 31.77(8.14) | 0.49(0.13) | 10.14(2.12) | ||
| Day and night | SVR | 24(2.02) | 29.22(2.33) | 71.35(4.33) | 45.85(6.85) | 53.92(7.98) | 39.89(7.04) | 0.52(0.12) | 12.55(3.25) | ||
| Individual | RegRF | 25(0) | 29.72(2.06) | 69.69(3.2) | 34.49(6.11) | 45.47(6.39) | 28.28(6.7) | 0.45(0.1) | 14.41(3.91) | ||
| hyperparameters | fNN | 20.73(1.78) | 23.54(1.91) | 82.11(1.92) | 32.25(6.88) | 48.69(7.4) | 24.5(6.56) | 0.35(0.1) | 11.18(3.22) | ||