TABLE 1—

SARIMA Model Results for Predicted Deaths, Total Recorded Deaths, and COVID-19–Related Deaths: Florida, 2020

Deaths	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	Total
Total all-cause recorded deaths, no.	19 683	19 209	19 095	18 803	23 958	23 537	19 493	143 778
SARIMA predicted deaths based on Pre–COVID-19 data, no.	19 204	18 402	18 335	17 334	17 643	17 046	16 573	124 537
Excess deaths
No.	479	807	760	1 469	6 315	6 491	2 920	19 241
%	2.5	4.4	4.1	8.5	35.8	38.1	17.6	15.5
Official reported COVID-19 deaths
No.	85	1 183	1 183	1 054	3 338	4 344	3 130	14 317
%	17.7	146.6	155.7	71.7	52.9	66.9	107.2	74.4
Estimated change in all-cause, excluding COVID-19, deaths	394	–376	–423	415	2 977	2 147	–210	4 924

Note. SARIMA = seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average.