Table 1.
Estimates of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19 on different age groups by applying assumptions to the imperial model
| Age group (years) | UK age distribution* | Infection Fatality Ratio | UK | GB | England & Wales | Scotland | Northern Ireland |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated number of deaths in each age group if there were a total of 510 000 deaths in GB | |||||||
| 0 to 4 | 6% | 0.002% | 44 | 42 | 39 | 3 | 1 |
| 5 to 9 | 6% | 0.003% | 78 | 76 | 70 | 6 | 2 |
| 10 to 14 | 6% | 0.006% | 124 | 120 | 111 | 9 | 4 |
| 15 to 19 | 6% | 0.010% | 200 | 194 | 178 | 16 | 6 |
| 20 to 24 | 6% | 0.017% | 387 | 376 | 344 | 32 | 11 |
| 25 to 29 | 7% | 0.028% | 711 | 691 | 631 | 60 | 19 |
| 30 to 34 | 7% | 0.048% | 1189 | 1155 | 1059 | 96 | 34 |
| 35 to 39 | 7% | 0.082% | 1975 | 1920 | 1762 | 157 | 56 |
| 40 to 44 | 6% | 0.139% | 3061 | 2972 | 2728 | 243 | 89 |
| 45 to 49 | 7% | 0.236% | 5860 | 5694 | 5208 | 487 | 166 |
| 50 to 54 | 7% | 0.400% | 10 310 | 10 018 | 9125 | 893 | 292 |
| 55 to 59 | 6% | 0.678% | 16 066 | 15 611 | 14 165 | 1447 | 455 |
| 60 to 64 | 6% | 1.150% | 23 316 | 22 663 | 20 528 | 2135 | 652 |
| 65 to 69 | 5% | 1.952% | 36 574 | 35 613 | 32 378 | 3235 | 961 |
| 70 to 74 | 5% | 3.311% | 59 400 | 57 930 | 52 980 | 4950 | 1470 |
| 75 to 79 | 3% | 5.617% | 69 281 | 67 442 | 61 520 | 5922 | 1839 |
| 80 to 84 | 3% | 9.528% | 87 980 | 85 803 | 78 429 | 7374 | 2177 |
| 85 to 89 | 2% | 16.164% | 91 370 | 89 177 | 81 913 | 7264 | 2192 |
| 90+ | 1% | 35.716% | 115 091 | 112 502 | 104 240 | 8262 | 2589 |
| Total | 523 016 | 510 000 | 467 409 | 42 591 | 13 016 | ||
| Estimated number of deaths in each age group if there were a total of 20 000 deaths in GB | |||||||
| 0 to 4 | 6% | 0.002% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 to 9 | 6% | 0.003% | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 to 14 | 6% | 0.006% | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 to 19 | 6% | 0.010% | 8 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 to 24 | 6% | 0.017% | 15 | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 to 29 | 7% | 0.028% | 28 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 1 |
| 30 to 34 | 7% | 0.048% | 47 | 45 | 42 | 4 | 1 |
| 35 to 39 | 7% | 0.082% | 77 | 75 | 69 | 6 | 2 |
| 40 to 44 | 6% | 0.139% | 120 | 117 | 107 | 10 | 3 |
| 45 to 49 | 7% | 0.236% | 230 | 223 | 204 | 19 | 7 |
| 50 to 54 | 7% | 0.400% | 404 | 393 | 358 | 35 | 11 |
| 55 to 59 | 6% | 0.678% | 630 | 612 | 555 | 57 | 18 |
| 60 to 64 | 6% | 1.150% | 914 | 889 | 805 | 84 | 26 |
| 65 to 69 | 5% | 1.952% | 1434 | 1397 | 1270 | 127 | 38 |
| 70 to 74 | 5% | 3.311% | 2329 | 2272 | 2078 | 194 | 58 |
| 75 to 79 | 3% | 5.617% | 2717 | 2645 | 2413 | 232 | 72 |
| 80 to 84 | 3% | 9.528% | 3450 | 3365 | 3076 | 289 | 85 |
| 85 to 89 | 2% | 16.164% | 3583 | 3497 | 3212 | 285 | 86 |
| 90+ | 1% | 35.716% | 4513 | 4412 | 4088 | 324 | 102 |
| Total | 20 510 | 20 000 | 18 330 | 1670 | 510 | ||
*ONS 2018 mid-population estimate. The population profiles for each nation/GB/UK were used to weight the estimates, but these are not shown because they are very similar to the estimates for the UK overall. GB, Great Britain; UK, United Kingdom.