Fig. 2.

Observed time series (points) and phenomenological model fits (lines; Materials and Methods) that yield the estimated growth rates (listed in Table 1 and plotted in Fig. 3). The data sources (SI Appendix, Table S2) are described in the main text and the legend of Fig. 1. For visual comparison, wills were aggregated weekly to match the frequency of mortality observations (fits to wills were based on the original daily counts). Vertical dashed lines show 1 April, 1 July, and 1 October of each year. Weeks with zero counts are shown along the bottom edge of the graph (present in all 14th century epidemics, 1625, and 1665). SI Appendix, Figs. S5 and S6, display the data during the major plague epidemics on linear rather than logarithmic scales.