Fig. 4.

Diatom community changes at core site BAIK13-7 (Fig. 1) (14, 16). (A) Changes in photic zone silicic acid supply (relative to a value of 100% at 2005 CE) together with the ratio of autumn/spring taxa, detrended canonical correspondence analysis (DCCA) axis 1 scores reflecting diatom composition turnover, principal-components analysis (PCA) axis 1 scores reflecting changing taxa composition, relative abundance of U. acus and A. skvortzowii, as well as mean surface water temperatures (SWTs) (May to October) from shoreline locations across Lake Baikal (29). (B) First derivatives and 95% simultaneous confidence intervals of GAMs fitted to each time series. Where the simultaneous interval does not include 0, the models detect significant temporal change in the proxy record.