Table 4.

Associations of FSH with significant bone loss^a by the next year; stratified by menopause transition (MT) stage

MT Stage	Relative Risk (RR) of Significant Bone Loss By the Next Year (per two-fold increment of FSH)
	Lumbar Spine				Femoral Neck
	RR (95% CI)	p-valueb	AUC	p-valuec	RR (95% CI)	p-valueb	AUC	p-valuec
Pre- and Early Perimenopause
FSH	1.46 (1.34, 1.59)	<0.0001	0.777	<0.0001	1.22 (1.04, 1.43)	0.01	0.732	0.8
Covariates only model	N/A	N/A	0.732	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.732	N/A
Late Perimenopause
FSH	1.21 (1.09, 1.36)	0.001	0.725	<0.0001	1.71 (1.23, 2.37)	0.001	0.621	0.4
Covariates only model	N/A	N/A	0.642	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.603	N/A

^aAssociations estimated using modified Poisson regression on repeated measures from all follow-up visits up to the last visit before postmenopause (1 year after the FMP). Bone loss considered significant if decrease in bone mineral density (from SWAN baseline to the follow-up visit around 1 year after FSH measurement) was greater than the site-specific least significant change (3.9% for the lumbar spine and 6.2% for the femoral neck). All models included the following covariates: age [years], race/ethnicity, clinical site, body mass index [kg/cm²]. In the pre- and early perimenopause stratum, models also included a flag for pre- vs. early perimenopause], and a flag for whether samples were collected during the early follicular phase of the menstrual cycle [yes/no]). The area under the receiver operator curves (AUC) for each model was estimated using logistic regression to assess the model’s ability to discriminate between women who were more vs. less likely to have significant bone loss in the next year.

^bp-value for hormone predictor

^cp-value for AUC of model containing hormone predictor with covariates compared to model with covariates only (all comparisons made within each MT stage stratum)