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. 2021 Mar 16;10:e64670. doi: 10.7554/eLife.64670

Table 3. Potential deaths and severe infections per year in Africa and South America from ensemble model projections.

Continent Year Severe infections, median Severe infections, 95% CrI low Severe infections, 95% CrI high Deaths, median Deaths, 95% CrI low Deaths, 95% CrI high
Africa 1995 102,972 62,162 160,700 48,474 28,672 76,998
Africa 2005 122,101 74,915 192,773 57,182 34,446 90,736
Africa 2013 98,148 62,083 150,953 45,973 28,680 72,380
Africa 2018 100,952 63,001 158,362 47,318 29,162 74,981
Americas 1995 14,349 6528 26,016 6652 3026 12,577
Americas 2005 10,254 4988 18,436 4827 2265 8779
Americas 2013 8559 4264 15,043 3999 1969 7162
Americas 2018 8331 4306 14,608 3883 1971 7033