Figure - PMC

Skip to main content

An official website of the United States government

Here's how you know

Here's how you know

Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

View full-text article in PMC

. 2021 Mar 18;35:100453. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100453

Search in PMC
Search in PubMed
View in NLM Catalog
Add to search

Crown Copyright © 2021 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

PMC Copyright notice

Fig. 3 — Probabilities that cases would exceed reference thresholds over the 6 weeks following June 7, 2020 depend on contact rate increases and jurisdiction. Projections are from a baseline of the lower of the post-NPI and May 2020 estimates. A, B: Probability of exceeding the historical “first wave” maximum. C, D: Probability of reported cases per day exceeding 1/20,000 of the population ( $N$ ). ON: Ontario, WA: Washington, CA: California, QC: Quebec, BC: British Columbia, NY: New York, SE: Sweden, UK: United Kingdom, BE: Belgium, DE: Germany, NZ: New Zealand, JP: Japan.