Table 3:
Incidence determined by three models
| Incidence (Lag FT)/1000 person years | Incidence (NAT yields)/1000 person years | Incidence (Repeat, classic)/1000 person years | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |||
| First time | All | Repeat | |||
| Overall | 1.84 (1.65, 2.06) | ||||
| Donor type | |||||
| First time | 3.32 (3.11, 3.55) | 3.81 (3.07, 4.73) | |||
| Repeat | 1.56 (1.37, 1.77) | 1.94 (1.86–2.01) | |||
| Year | |||||
| 2012 | 3.48 (3.01, 4.02) | 4.06 (2.53, 6.54) | 1.82 (1.42, 2.35) | 1.50 (1.11, 2.02) | 1.74 (1.50–2.01) |
| 2013 | 4.08 (3.59, 4.64) | 5.68 (3.87, 8.34) | 2.45 (1.97, 3.04) | 1.93 (1.49, 2.51) | 1.79 (1.55–2.07) |
| 2014 | 3.05 (2.62, 3.55) | 3.45 (2.08, 5.72) | 1.68 (1.30, 2.18) | 1.42 (1.05, 1.93) | 1.75 (1.52–2.02) |
| 2015 | 3.05 (2.62, 3.55) | 3.25 (1.92, 5.48) | 1.55 (1.19, 2.02) | 1.31 (0.96, 1.78) | 2.00 (1.75–2.29) |
| 2016 | 2.90 (2.47, 3.41) | 2.45 (1.32, 4.55) | 1.73 (1.34, 2.23) | 1.63 (1.23, 2.16) | 1.63 (1.40–1.89) |
| Gender | |||||
| Female | 4.43 (4.11, 4.78) | 5.52 (4.34, 7.03) | 2.91 (2.54, 3.33) | 2.40 (2.04, 2.82) | 2.68 (2.55–2.82) |
| Male | 1.94 (1.70, 2.20) | 1.68 (1.03, 2.73) | 0.86 (0.70, 1.07) | 0.96 (0.77, 1.19) | 1.29 (1.20–1.37) |
| Age | |||||
| 16–19 | 2.21 (1.96, 2.48) | 2.20 (1.45, 3.35) | 1.95 (1.51, 2.51) | 1.82 (1.32, 2.51) | 2.27 (2.07–2.50) |
| 20–30 | 5.58 (5.08, 6.14) | 7.49 (5.59, 10.04) | 3.89 (3.33, 4.53) | 3.27 (2.73, 3.92) | 3.57 (3.37–3.79) |
| >30 | 2.87 (2.49, 3.30) | 2.72 (1.64, 4.52) | 0.93 (0.76, 1.15) | 0.83 (0.66, 1.04) | 1.07 (0.99, 1.15) |
| Female | |||||
| 16–19 | 3.51 (3.09, 3.99) | 3.50 (2.23, 5.49) | 3.29 (2.48, 4.36) | 3.16 (2.20, 4.55) | 3.51 (3.15–3.91) |
| 20–30 | 6.94 (6.20, 7.77) | 10.18 (7.31, 14.18) | 5.68 (4.71, 6.84) | 4.69 (3.74, 5.88) | 4.61 (4.28–4.97) |
| >30 | 3.23 (2.71, 3.85) | 3.88 (2.21, 6.84) | 1.40 (1.07, 1.82) | 1.19 (0.88, 1.60) | 1.40 (1.28–1.55) |
| Male | |||||
| 16–19 | 0.65 (0.47, 0.90) | 0.66 (0.21, 2.04) | 0.70 (0.39, 1.26) | 0.72 (0.36, 1.43) | 1.05 (0.86–1.28) |
| 20–30 | 3.77 (3.15, 4.50) | 3.89 (2.10, 7.24) | 2.33 (1.78, 3.06) | 2.13 (1.57, 2.88) | 2.58 (2.34–2.85) |
| >30 | 2.40 (1.90, 3.02) | 1.24 (0.40, 3.85) | 0.62 (0.45, 0.86) | 0.59 (0.42, 0.83) | 0.80 (0.72–0.90) |
| Race | |||||
| White | 0.19 (0.12, 0.32) | 0.15 (0.02, 1.06) | 0.13 (0.08, 0.23) | 0.13 (0.08, 0.23) | 0.20 (0.17–0.23) |
| Black | 5.88 (5.50, 6.29) | 6.71 (5.37, 8.39) | 5.80 (5.16, 6.52) | 5.52 (4.81, 6.33) | 5.81 (5.57–6.06) |
| Asian | 0.12 (0.03, 0.48) | 0.65 (0.09, 4.61) | 0.39 (0.16, 0.94) | 0.36 (0.13, 0.95) | 0.33 (0.24–0.46) |
| Coloured | 1.38 (0.89, 2.13) | 0.85 (0.12, 6.01) | 1.10 (0.59, 2.04) | 1.14 (0.59, 2.18) | 1.67 (1.39–2.00) |
| Unknown | 1.27 (0.68, 2.36) | 3.15 (0.79, 12.58) | 1.41 (0.46, 4.38) | 0.67 (0.09, 4.77) | 1.47 (0.96–2.23) |
| Province | |||||
| Gauteng | 2.61 (2.34, 2.92) | 2.92 (2.02, 4.24) | 1.45 (1.20, 1.74) | 1.23 (0.99, 1.53) | 1.55 (1.45–1.66) |
| KwaZulu Natal | 4.42 (3.90, 5.02) | 7.28 (5.15, 10.30) | 2.91 (2.35, 3.60) | 2.12 (1.62, 2.78) | 2.47 (2.27–2.68) |
| Mpumalanga | 5.92 (5.02, 6.97) | 8.25 (5.05, 13.46) | 2.77 (2.07, 3.70) | 2.04 (1.43, 2.92) | 2.81 (2.52–3.14) |
| Eastern Cape | 2.98 (2.36, 3.75) | 0.99 (0.25, 3.94) | 1.85 (1.28, 2.66) | 1.97 (1.26, 3.03) | 2.34 (2.08–2.64) |
| Free State | 4.29 (3.34, 5.51) | 1.76 (0.44, 7.04) | 1.94 (1.27, 2.94) | 1.95 (1.26, 3.03) | 2.00 (1.71–2.34) |
| North West | 1.42 (0.90, 2.26) | 0 | 0.83 (0.42, 1.67) | 0.93 (0.47, 1.86) | 0.84 (0.64–1.11) |
| Limpopo | 2.61 (1.81, 3.75) | 1.14 (0.16, 8.07) | 1.37 (0.69, 2.75) | 1.42 (0.67, 2.97) | 2.28 (1.86–2.81) |
| Northern Cape | 1.74 (0.99, 3.06) | 1.83 (0.26, 12.98) | 0.96 (0.40, 2.32) | 0.86 (0.32, 2.30) | 1.12 (0.83–1.52) |