Table 2.

Pedroni residual co-integration test (Nordic region in a 40-day period of the first wave of pandemic).

Variables	Deterministic trend specification	Methods	No weight		Weighted		Conclusion
			Statistic	P	Statistic	P
Daily deaths & social distancing	Individual intercept & trend	Panel PP-Statistic	−3.56	＜0.001	−2.63	0.004	Co-integrated
		Panel ADF-Statistic	−4.22	＜0.001	−4.79	＜0.001
		Group PP-Statistic	−2.60	0.004
		Group ADF-Statistic	−4.21	＜0.001
Daily infections & social distancing	Individual intercept	Panel PP-Statistic	−2.79	0.002	−2.67	0.003	Co-integrated
		Panel ADF-Statistic	−1.40	0.080	−1.66	0.048
		Group PP-Statistic	−3.46	＜0.001
		Group ADF-Statistic	−1.50	0.065
All hospital beds needed & social distancing	No intercept & no trend	Panel PP-Statistic	−3.92	＜0.001	−4.05	＜0.001	Co-integrated
		Panel ADF-Statistic	−2.63	0.004	−1.31	0.094
		Group PP-Statistic	−4.74	＜0.001
		Group ADF-Statistic	−2.91	0.001
ICU beds needed & social distancing	No intercept & no trend	Panel PP-Statistic	−4.02	＜0.001	−4.23	＜0.001	Co-integrated
		Panel ADF-Statistic	−2.54	0.005	−2.07	0.019
		Group PP-Statistic	−5.64	＜0.001
		Group ADF-Statistic	−3.35	＜0.001
Beds needed in infection wards & social distancing	No intercept & no trend	Panel PP-Statistic	−4.02	＜0.001	−4.10	＜0.001	Co-integrated
		Panel ADF-Statistic	−2.92	0.001	−1.48	0.068
		Group PP-Statistic	−4.79	＜0.001
		Group ADF-Statistic	−2.59	0.004
Nurses needed in ICUs & social distancing	No intercept & no trend	Panel PP-Statistic	−3.48	＜0.001	−3.61	＜0.001	Co-integrated
		Panel ADF-Statistic	−2.92	0.001	−1.97	0.024
		Group PP-Statistic	−4.52	＜0.001
		Group ADF-Statistic	−4.18	＜0.001
Nurses needed in infection wards & social distancing	No intercept & no trend	Panel PP-Statistic	−4.75	＜0.001	−4.58	＜0.001	Co-integrated
		Panel ADF-Statistic	−3.74	＜0.001	−3.00	0.001
		Group PP-Statistic	−5.86	＜0.001
		Group ADF-Statistic	−3.61	＜0.001

Notes: Null Hypothesis of Pedroni test: No cointegration. Trend assumption was the existence of no deterministic trend. Automatic lag length selection used based on SIC with a max lag of 9. Newey-West automatic used to estimate bandwidth and Bartlett was calculated by kernel.