Table 2.
Net Effects of Vaping on Mortality and Smoking Cessation by 2100
| Vaping does not increase smoking initiation | Vaping increases smoking initiation by 10% | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaping risk (% of cigarettes)a | Annual cessation rate increase due to vaping (%) | Life-years saved (LYS) (millions) | LYS as % of life-years lost (LYL) due to smoking in scenario in which e-cigarettes never existed | E-quitters (millions) | LYS (millions) | LYS as % of LYL due to smoking in scenario in which e-cigarettes never existed | E-quitters (millions) |
| 5 | 10 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| 25 | 13.2 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 3.6 | 9.4 | |
| 50 | 23.6 | 7.7 | 15.9 | 21.7 | 7.1 | 16.6 | |
| 100 | 39.0 | 12.8 | 25.7 | 37.4 | 12.3 | 26.9 | |
| 10 | 10 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 4.1 |
| 25 | 11.5 | 3.8 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 9.4 | |
| 50 | 20.5 | 6.7 | 15.9 | 18.5 | 6.1 | 16.6 | |
| 100 | 33.8 | 11.1 | 25.7 | 32.1 | 10.5 | 26.9 | |
| 20 | 10 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 4.1 |
| 25 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 9.4 | |
| 50 | 14.6 | 4.8 | 15.9 | 12.4 | 4.1 | 16.6 | |
| 100 | 23.9 | 7.8 | 25.7 | 21.9 | 7.2 | 26.9 |
Assumptions: (1) The background smoking cessation rate does not vary by the age of the smoker. (2) The vaping-related increase in the smoking cessation rate is the same for all smokers regardless of their difficulty quitting smoking without vaping.
aDecrease in former smokers’ annual mortality-reduction benefit (compared to continued smoking).