Table 2.
Selected diagnostic characteristics of practice-derived scores and HCC scores versus expenditure and utilization outcomes (N = 3,381)
| Outcome | Practice: high risk | HCC: high risk | Δ (Practice-HCC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average (range) | Average (range) | ||
| ED ≥ 2 (12%) | |||
| Sensitivity | 0.3 (0.14, 0.69) | 0.32 (0.17, 0.6) | − 0.02 |
| PPV | 0.25 (0.15, 0.33) | 0.28 (0.23, 0.33) | − 0.03 |
| Accuracy | 0.76 (0.57, 0.87) | 0.76 (0.53, 0.87) | 0.00 |
| Hospitalization ≥ 1 (14%) | |||
| Sensitivity | 0.26 (0.1, 0.53) | 0.36 (0.16, 0.6) | − 0.10** |
| PPV | 0.24 (0.15, 0.33) | 0.34 (0.27, 0.5) | − 0.10** |
| Accuracy | 0.74 (0.51, 0.84) | 0.77 (0.54, 0.86) | − 0.03 |
| Expenditures ≥ 30k (9%) | |||
| Sensitivity | 0.26 (0.07, 0.54) | 0.4 (0.22, 0.66) | − 0.14** |
| PPV | 0.16 (0.06, 0.32) | 0.24 (0.19, 0.32) | − 0.08** |
| Accuracy | 0.77 (0.51, 0.88) | 0.79 (0.55, 0.9) | − 0.02 |
ED = Emergency Department use; PPV = Positive Predictive Value, or (True Positives)/(True Positives + False Positives); Sensitivity = True Positives/(True Positives + False Negatives); Accuracy = (True Positives + True Negatives)/All Cases; 30k = 30,000; HCC = Hierarchical Condition Category score
*p value < .05; **p value < .01; ***p value < .001