Table 3.
Prediction of pCR and residual tumor size in the MRI group and in the US group
| Group | pCR, N | CR, N | TN, N | FP, N | TP, N | FN, N | Specificity (CL) | Sensitivity (CL) | NPV (CL) | PPV (CL) | |
| Overall | MRI (N = 244) | 89 | 84 | 61 | 28 | 132 | 23 | 0.69 (0.58–0.78) | 0.85 (0.79–0.90) | 0.73 (0.62–0.82) | 0.83 (0.76–0.88) |
| US (N = 578) | 218 | 149 | 101 | 117 | 312 | 48 | 0.46 (0.40–0.53) | 0.87 (0.83–0.90) | 0.68 (0.60–0.75) | 0.73 (0.68–0.77) | |
| HR+/HER2+ | MRI (N = 103) | 34 | 25 | 19 | 15 | 63 | 6 | 0.56 (0.38–0.73) | 0.91 (0.82–0.97) | 0.76 (0.55–0.91) | 0.81 (0.70–0.89) |
| US (N = 252) | 83 | 62 | 39 | 44 | 146 | 23 | 0.47 (0.36–0.58) | 0.86 (0.80–0.91) | 0.63 (0.50–0.75) | 0.77 (0.70–0.83) | |
| HR−/HER2− | MRI (N = 91) | 31 | 38 | 22 | 9 | 44 | 15 | 0.71 (0.52–0.86) | 0.73 (0.60–0.84) | 0.58 (0.41–0.74) | 0.83 (0.70–0.92) |
| US (N = 242) | 93 | 65 | 48 | 45 | 132 | 17 | 0.52 (0.41–0.62) | 0.89 (0.82–0.93) | 0.74 (0.62–0.84) | 0.75 (0.68–0.81) | |
| HR−/HER2+ | MRI (N = 50) | 24 | 21 | 20 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 0.83 (0.63–0.95) | 0.96 (0.80–1) | 0.95 (0.76–1) | 0.86 (0.68–0.96) |
| US (N = 84) | 42 | 22 | 14 | 28 | 34 | 8 | 0.33 (0.20–0.50) | 0.81 (0.66–0.91) | 0.64 (0.41–0.83) | 0.55 (0.42–0.68) | |
| Group | ≤10 mm at histology, N | ≤10 mm at imaging, N | TN, N | FP, N | TP, N | FN, N | Specificity (CL) | Sensitivity (CL) | NPV (CL) | PPV (CL) | |
| Overall | MRI (N = 224) | 151 | 100 | 92 | 59 | 65 | 8 | 0.61 (0.53–0.69) | 0.89 (0.80–0.95) | 0.92 (0.85–0.96) | 0.52 (0.43–0.62) |
| US (N = 560) | 353 | 306 | 253 | 100 | 154 | 53 | 0.72 (0.67–0.76) | 0.74 (0.68–0.80) | 0.83 (0.78–0.87) | 0.61 (0.54–0.67) | |
| HR+/HER2+ | MRI (N = 101) | 61 | 30 | 27 | 34 | 37 | 3 | 0.44 (0.32–0.58) | 0.93 (0.80–0.98) | 0.90 (0.74–0.98) | 0.52 (0.40–0.64) |
| US (N = 246) | 142 | 138 | 106 | 36 | 72 | 32 | 0.75 (0.67–0.82) | 0.69 (0.59–0.78) | 0.77 (0.69–0.84) | 0.67 (0.57–0.75) | |
| HR−/HER2− | MRI (N = 81) | 55 | 45 | 40 | 15 | 21 | 5 | 0.73 (0.59–0.84) | 0.81 (0.61–0.93) | 0.89 (0.76–0.96) | 0.58 (0.41–0.74) |
| US (N = 237) | 156 | 124 | 107 | 49 | 64 | 17 | 0.69 (0.61–0.76) | 0.79 (0.69–0.87) | 0.86 (0.79–0.92) | 0.57 (0.47–0.66) | |
| HR−/HER2+ | MRI (N = 42) | 35 | 25 | 25 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0.71 (0.54–0.85) | 1 (0.59–1) | 1 (0.86–1) | 0.41 (0.18–0.67) |
| US (N = 77) | 55 | 44 | 40 | 15 | 18 | 4 | 0.73 (0.59–0.84) | 0.82 (0.60–0.95) | 0.91 (0.78–0.98) | 0.55 (0.36–0.72) |
TP, true-positive examination; FP, false-positive examination; TN, true-negative examination and FN; false-negative examination. For pCR, TN was defined as CR at imaging and pCR, FP as no CR at imaging and pCR, TP as no CR at imaging and no pCR, and FN as CR at imaging and no pCR. For residual tumor at histology, TN was defined as tumor size of ≤10 mm by imaging and equivalent tumor size at histology, FP was defined as tumor size of > 10 mm by imaging and tumor size of ≤10 mm at histology; TP was defined as tumor size of > 10 mm by imaging and equivalent tumor size at histology, and FN was defined as tumor size of ≤10 mm by imaging and tumor size of > 10 mm at histology. PPV, positive predictive value, defined as P(P = 1|I = 1); NPV, negative predictive value, defined as P(P = 0|I = 0); SENS, sensitivity, defined as P(I = 1|P = 1); SPEC, specificity, defined as P(I = 0|P = 0 where P(A|B) denotes the conditional probability of event A given that event B has occurred. P = 1 denotes a residual invasive tumor size of > 10 mm at histology, and I = 1 denotes tumor size of > 10 mm at imaging; CL, exact 95% confidence limits (Clopper-Pearson)