Table 1. Parameters used in the model.

Parameter	Description	Value
β(t)	Potentially infective contact rate	Fitted (changes over time)
pE	Infectivity of exposed individuals	0.4*
pI	Infectivity of symptomatic individuals	1.0*
pA	Infectivity of asymptomatic individuals	1/3*
pH	Infectivity of hospitalized individuals	0.01*
pG	Infectivity of ICU patients	0.01*
μ	Natural mortality rate (life expectancy of 70 years)	3.91×10-5 days-1 *
δI	Rate of evolution from exposed to infected	1/2 day-1 *
δA	Rate of evolution from exposed to asymptomatic	1.45 day-1 **
γI	Rate of recovery from infected	1/3 day-1 *
γA	Rate of recovery from asymptomatic	1/14 day-1 *
γH	Rate of recovery from hospitalized	1/10 day-1 *
γG	Rate of recovery from ICU	0.06752 day-1 **
γQ	Rate of recovery from isolated	1/14 day-1 *
αI	Disease-induced mortality rate for infected individuals	5×10-4 day-1 *
αA	Disease-induced mortality rate for asymptomatic individuals	0*
αH	Disease-induced mortality rate for hospitalized individuals	2.2012×10-4 day-1 **
αG	Disease-induced mortality rate for ICU patients	Fitted (changes over time)
εS	Isolation rate of susceptible individuals	Variable
εE	Isolation rate of exposed individuals	Variable
εI	Isolation rate of symptomatic individuals	Variable
εA	Isolation rate of asymptomatic individuals	Variable
σH	Hospitalization rate	1.973×10-2 day-1 **
σG	ICU admission rate	Fitted (changes over time)
φ	Rate of change from compartment QS(t) to ST(t)	1/14 day-1 *
K(t)	Notification ratio	Fitted (changes over time)
Λ(t)	Birth rate	Changes over time

^*assumed;

^**fitted.