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. 2020 Nov 5;90(4):700–707. doi: 10.1097/TA.0000000000003044

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Copyright © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections.

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Comparison of number of monthly homicides reported in San Francisco before and after shelter-in-place. (A) Box and whiskers plots of historical homicides reported by month 2016–2019 compared with 2020 values (diamonds). (B) ITSA model for homicides reported by month adjusting for historical variation, showing slight downtrend with seasonal monthly variation from 2016 to 2019, but with a significant level shift increase associated with shelter-in-place of 2.3 more homicides per month compared with historical levels (p = 0.01) and nonsignificant decrease after shelter-in-place (p = 0.15). Lags specified for autocorrelation: 12 months. See Supplemental Table 7 (http://links.lww.com/TA/B859) for complete ITSA model results.