Table A.1.
Data details.
| Stylized facts | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ID | Variable | Source | Sample |
| TO (UK) | Trade openness (UK) | Ryland and Dimsdale (2017) & World Bank | 1800 – 2019 |
| TO (World) | Trade openness (World) & World Bank | http://ourworldindata.org/ | 1870 – 2019 |
| SP | Real share price index | Jordà et al. (2016) | 1870 – 2016 |
| LTIR | Real long term interest rate | Jordà et al. (2016) | 1870 – 2016 |
| LUP | London underground passengers | http://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets | 1950 – 2018 |
| MSP | Monthly stock price returns | Ryland and Dimsdale (2017) & OECD | 1750 – 2020 |
| Empirical analysis | |||
| ID | Variable | Source | Sample |
| Pop | Population | Ryland and Dimsdale (2017) & Office for National Statistics (ONS) | 1500 - 2019 |
| GDP | Gross Domestic Product | Ryland and Dimsdale (2017) & ONS | 1500 - 2019 |
| GDP p.c. | GDP per capita | Ryland and Dimsdale (2017) & ONS | 1500 - 2019 |
| RW | Real wages | Ryland and Dimsdale (2017) | 1500 - 2016 |
| CPI | Inflation | Ryland and Dimsdale (2017) | 1500 - 2016 |
| PSurplus | Primary surplus (% of GDP) | Ryland and Dimsdale (2017) | 1500 - 2016 |
| RC | Real consumption | Ryland and Dimsdale (2017) | 1500 - 2016 |
| RI | Real Investment | Ryland and Dimsdale (2017) | 1500 - 2016 |
| LK | Labour-to-capital ratio | Ryland and Dimsdale (2017) | 1500 - 2016 |
| LP | Workers-to-population ratio | Ryland and Dimsdale (2017) | 1500 - 2016 |
| SP | Real share price return | Ryland and Dimsdale (2017) & OECD | 1500 - 2019 |
| P | Epidemic death rate | Graunt (1662), Creighton (1891) | 1500 - 2019 |
| Creighton (1894), Edwardes (1902) | |||
| Eichel (1922), Slack (1985) | |||
| Wrigley and Schofield (1989), Kohn (2008), | |||
| McLean et al. (2010), http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom | |||
| W | Wars death rate | Sorokin (1937),Clodfelter (2017)http://www.britishbattles.com/ | 1500 - 2019 |
| C | Extreme climate events (dummy) | http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_in_the_British_Isles | 1500 - 2019 |
Notes: * indicates partial data ending in August. COVID-19 death rates projections for 2020 (proxied by UK data) used in Table 1 are taken from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.