Table 1.
Results of estimation of age–period–cohort using the intrinsic estimator method
| National | Urban | Rural | Town | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-order | First | All-order | First | All-order | First | All-order | First | |
| Age | ||||||||
| 15–19 |
− 0.9204 (0.1402) |
0.4394 (0.4037) |
− 1.3308 (0.2279) |
− 0.3720 (0.5273) |
− 0.8096 (0.1234) |
0.7491 (0.3861) |
− 1.0607 (0.1839) |
0.1453 (0.4841) |
| 20–24 |
1.8830 (0.0703) |
2.6871 (0.2653) |
1.8502 (0.1065) |
2.3802 (0.3375) |
1.9253 (0.0637) |
2.8837 (0.2573) |
2.0327 (0.0890) |
2.8018(0.3148) |
| 25–29 |
1.7070 (0.0695) |
1.9101 (0.1607) |
1.9599 (0.0864) |
2.1622 (0.1886) |
1.6547 (0.0652) |
2.0403 (0.1644) |
1.8046 (0.0776) |
2.1214(0.1828) |
| 30–34 |
0.8208 (0.0887) |
0.1651 (0.1588) |
0.8748 (0.0997) |
0.5717 (0.1363) |
0.8338 (0.0838) |
− 0.1059 (0.1900) |
0.7905 (0.0947) |
0.1978(0.1662) |
| 35–39 |
− 0.2471 (0.1265) |
− 1.1681 (0.2874) |
− 0.2257 (0.1444) |
− 0.7965 (0.2672) |
− 0.2634 (0.1198) |
− 1.3246 (0.3281) |
− 0.2468 (0.1355) |
− 1.1951 (0.3151) |
| 40–44 |
− 1.3539 (0.1869) |
− 1.9806 (0.4432) |
− 1.3718 (0.2217) |
− 1.7947 (0.4477) |
− 1.3730 (0.1762) |
− 2.0930 (0.4878) |
− 1.4229 (0.2092) |
− 1.9073 (0.4777) |
| 45–49 |
− 1.8895 (0.2498) |
− 2.0529 (0.5477) |
− 1.7567 (0.2852) |
− 2.1509 (0.6124) |
− 1.9678 (0.2378) |
− 2.1495 (0.5877) |
− 1.8975 (0.2707) |
− 2.1639 (0.6151) |
| Period | ||||||||
| 1990 |
0.9019 (0.0829) |
0.0557 (0.3380) |
0.6954 (0.1225) |
0.0841 (0.4227) |
0.8891 (0.0761) |
0.1468 (0.3319) |
0.6181 (0.1056) |
− 0.0491 (0.3987) |
| 1995 |
− 0.0624 (0.0737) |
− 0.2527 (0.2136) |
− 0.1458 (0.0944) |
− 0.2802 (0.2618) |
− 0.0886 (0.0696) |
− 0.1876 (0.2100) |
− 0.1530 (0.0860) |
− 0.1870 (0.2486) |
| 2000 |
− 0.3627 (0.0671) |
− 0.3566 (0.1093) |
− 0.5122 (0.0800) |
− 0.4127 (0.1205) |
− 0.3134 (0.0624) |
− 0.3098 (0.1090) |
− 0.3745 (0.0724) |
− 0.2527 (0.1187) |
| 2005 |
− 0.2563 (0.0637) |
− 0.1006 (0.1070) |
− 0.3274 (0.0768) |
− 0.2281 (0.1210) |
− 0.1801 (0.0582) |
− 0.1631 (0.1076) |
− 0.1828 (0.0670) |
− 0.0087 (0.1160) |
| 2010 |
− 0.1885 (0.0760) |
0.1762 (0.2152) |
− 0.0606 (0.0983) |
0.2273 (0.2642) |
− 0.1704 (0.0698) |
− 0.2749 (0.2143) |
− 0.0806 (0.0857) |
0.1209 (0.2504) |
| 2015 |
− 0.0321 (0.1013) |
0.4780 (0.3451) |
0.3505 (0.1350) |
0.6095 (0.4279) |
− 0.1367 (0.0949) |
0.7887 (0.3351) |
0.1728 (0.1193) |
0.3767 (0.4064) |
| Birth cohort | ||||||||
| 1940–1944 |
− 0.7524 (0.4953) |
− 1.7354 (2.4721) |
− 1.2019 (0.8175) |
− 2.1777 (3.2733) |
− 0.6625 (0.4487) |
− 1.4954 (2.3632) |
− 0.9594 (0.6806) |
− 1.8956 (3.0055) |
| 1945–1949 |
− 0.1425 (0.3123) |
− 0.9703 (1.5766) |
− 0.3710 (0.5004) |
− 0.8736 (1.6753) |
− 0.1121 (0.2835) |
− 0.8130 (1.5608) |
− 0.3928 (0.4389) |
− 0.9749 (1.7145) |
| 1950–1954 |
− 0.0072 (0.2265) |
− 0.3966 (1.0631) |
0.1401 (0.3337) |
0.0176 (1.1198) |
− 0.0417 (0.2077) |
− 0.5283 (1.1374) |
0.1240 (0.2854) |
− 0.2420 (1.1555) |
| 1955–1959 |
− 0.0447 (0.1746) |
− 0.1085 (0.7528) |
0.2061 (0.2565) |
0.3059 (0.8626) |
− 0.1052 (0.1598) |
− 0.2948 (0.7934) |
0.1174 (0.2214) |
0.0522 (0.8503) |
| 1960–1964 |
0.1062 (0.1338) |
0.6017 (0.5441) |
0.4680 (0.1969) |
0.8838 (0.6654) |
0.0194 (0.1230) |
0.2703 (0.5417) |
0.2639 (0.1697) |
0.7948 (0.6331) |
| 1965–1969 |
0.0267 (0.1055) |
0.8425 (0.4051) |
0.4448 (0.1555) |
1.0623 (0.4970) |
− 0.1170 (0.0968) |
0.6991 (0.3999) |
0.1255 (0.1325) |
0.8303 (0.4729) |
| 1970–1974 |
0.4025 (0.0927) |
1.1068 (0.2814) |
0.7983 (0.1296) |
1.2502 (0.3394) |
0.2555 (0.0852) |
1.0162 (0.2788) |
0.4505 (0.1106) |
0.8978 (0.3250) |
| 1975–1979 |
0.4147 (0.0838) |
0.9599 (0.1706) |
0.6651 (0.1126) |
0.9760 (0.1964) |
0.3065 (0.0759) |
0.9963 (0.1713) |
0.4079 (0.0936) |
0.7094 (0.1898) |
| 1980–1984 |
0.2720 (0.0787) |
0.6563 (0.1080) |
0.3761 (0.1064) |
0.5712 (0.1243) |
0.1957 (0.0702) |
0.8780 (0.1084) |
0.3229 (0.0835) |
0.5577 (0.1128) |
| 1985–1989 |
− 0.1476 (0.0938) |
− 0.0496 (0.1760) |
− 0.3166 (0.1300) |
− 0.2827 (0.2258) |
− 0.1150 (0.0829) |
0.1560 (0.1677) |
− 0.1397 (0.1003) |
− 0.0499 (0.2013) |
| 1990–1994 |
− 0.5453 (0.1361) |
− 0.7429 (0.3071) |
− 0.9911 (0.1958) |
− 1.0927 (0.3972) |
− 0.3231 (0.1178) |
− 0.7372 (0.2921) |
− 0.5719 (0.1469) |
− 0.6171 (0.3571) |
| 1995–1999 |
0.4176 (0.3391) |
− 0.1639 (0.5337) |
− 0.2179 (0.6149) |
− 0.6404 (0.8088) |
0.6994 (0.2730) |
− 0.1472 (0.4802) |
0.2517 (0.4067) |
− 0.0629 (0.6348) |
| Intercept |
2.7530 (0.0732) |
1.3246 (0.3271) |
2.1342 (0.1212) |
1.2487 (0.4069) |
2.9818 (0.0647) |
1.1956 (0.3202) |
2.5141 (0.0971) |
1.2952 (0.3831) |
| Model fitting tests | ||||||||
| DF | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Deviance | 35.3641 | 10.2297 | 25.5717 | 12.5918 | 42.7560 | 37.2338 | 35.3089 | 12.1500 |
| AIC | 6.5416 | 4.9183 | 5.8856 | 5.0101 | 6.8816 | 5.4642 | 6.3428 | 4.8999 |
| BIC | − 39.3892 | − 64.5237 | − 49.1817 | − 62.1616 | − 31.9974 | − 37.5196 | − 39.4445 | − 62.6034 |
Standard errors in brackets