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. 2021 Mar 21;5:100087. doi: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100087

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© 2021 The Authors

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

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Fig 4: — Changes in probabilities of ICU admission and death.

A. Daily number of hospital admissions as a function of time, from 13th March to 30th June 2020. Dashed lines denote the different windows of time (named T1-T5) used to estimate the changes in probabilities. B. Changes in probability of ICU admission given hospitalization, as a function of time. C. Changes in probability of death given hospitalization and no ICU admission, as a function of time. D. Changes in probability of death given ICU admission, as a function of time. E. Changes in overall probability of death given hospitalization, as a function of time. We divide the epidemic into different periods of time: T1: 13 March - 1 April; T2: 2 April - 21 April; T3: 22 April - 11 May; T4: 12 May - 31 May; T5: 1 June - 30 June, T6: 1 July - 31 July, T7: 1 August - 31 August, T8: 1 September - 30 September, T9: 1 October - 31 October, T10: 1 November - 30 November. All changes are weighted by the proportion of patients that are of each sex. Changes are computed relatively to T1 (reference), estimates are presented in Tables S7–10. The dots and lines represent 2.5, 50 and 97.5 percentiles of the posterior distributions.