Table 3.
Estimation results
| COVID-19 death rate March 31st | COVID-19 death rate April 30th | COVID-19 death rate May 31st | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | OLS | SAR | OLS | SAR | OLS | SAR |
| Demographic determinants | ||||||
| Population density | − 0.084 (0.085) | 0.018 (0.092) | − 0.148 (0.258) | 0.099 (0.213) | − 0.019 (0.303) | 0.207 (0.244) |
| Population concentration | 0.049 (0.202) | 0.007 (0.181) | 0.125 (0.494) | − 0.173 (0.422) | 0.402 (0.568) | − 0.103 (0.488) |
| Share of the population aged 75 and over | 21.649*** (5.760) | 16.111*** (5.290) | 43.714*** (13.676) |
35.812*** (12.084) |
47.839*** (16.403) | 40.396*** (13.896) |
| Income and wealth determinants | ||||||
| GDP per capita | 2.507*** (0.708) | 1.723*** (0.460) | 6.258*** (1.839) | 4.393*** (1.043) | 6.335*** (2.047) | 4.438*** (1.192) |
| Unemployment rate | 7.723*** (2.765) | 5.583** (2.552) | 18.861** (8.190) | 14.999** (5.873) | 16.566* (9.932) | 14.583** (6.740) |
| Distance to EU targets | 0.006 (0.009) | 0.005 (0.007) | 0.037 (0.023) | 0.027* (0.016) | 0.043* (0.025) | 0.034* (0.018) |
| Health care determinants | ||||||
| General medical practitioners | − 0.018** (0.007) | − 0.016* (0.009) | − 0.071*** (0.023) | − 0.053** (0.021) | − 0.094*** (0.027) | − 0.062*** (0.024) |
| Hospital beds | − 0.015*** (0.004) | − 0.009** (0.004) | − 0.040*** (0.010) | − 0.023** (0.009) | − 0.049*** (0.012) | − 0.029*** (0.011) |
| Social trust | − 0.522** (0.243) | − 0.295 (0.227) | − 1.700** (0.677) | − 1.005* (0.526) | − 1.960** (0.772) | − 1.202** (0.604) |
| Constant | − 26.792*** (7.023) | − 19.072*** (4.707) | − 65.808*** (18.258) | − 48.863*** (10.653) | − 66.315*** (20.528) | − 50.128*** (12.163) |
| ρ | 0.516*** (0.098) | 0.588*** (0.083) | 0.594*** (0.082) | |||
| Observations | 125 | 125 | 125 | 125 | 125 | 125 |
| R2 | 0.288 | 0.408 | 0.315 | 0.473 | 0.318 | 0.476 |
| Log likelihood | − 173.621 | − 162.929 | − 287.187 | − 269.547 | − 305.510 | − 287.313 |
| AIC | 367.243 | 349.859 | 594.374 | 563.095 | 631.021 | 598.627 |
| Tests | ||||||
| I de moran | 4.072*** | 6.028*** | 6.195*** | |||
| LMError | 9.605*** | 23.849*** | 25.361*** | |||
| RLMError | 7.334*** | 3.773* | 2.954* | |||
| LMLag | 21.531*** | 39.954*** | 41.144*** | |||
| RLMLag | 19.260*** | 19.878*** | 18.737*** | |||
Robust standard errors are shown in parentheses. Significance levels: ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1