Table 5.
Projections for R&T production, consumption and trade in developing countries in 2030 and 2050 a
| Region/commodity b | Production (million t) | Value (%) | Production (million t) | Consumption (kg capita−1 yr−1) | Net trade (million t) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016–18 | 2030 | 2050 | 2010 | 2030 | 2050 | 2010 | 2030 | 2050 | ||
| World | 962 | 1101 | 65 | 67.7 | 68.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Developing | 684 | 100 | 857 | 995 | 65.8 | 69.5 | 71.1 | 5.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Developed | 105 | 106 | 61.2 | 57.5 | 56.1 | −5.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | ||
| Asia and Pacific c | 304 | 44 | 356 | 379 | 46.9 | 48.3 | 45.6 | −4.9 | 1.4 | 28.7 |
| Potato | 157 | 20 | ||||||||
| Cassava | 83 | 4 | ||||||||
| Sweet potato | 59 | 18 | ||||||||
| Other R&Ts d | 5 | 2 | ||||||||
| Ex‐Soviet Union e | 11 | 2 | 10 | 12 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Potato | 11 | 2 | ||||||||
| Africa and M East f | 317 | 47 | 361 | 485 | 109.3 | 113.8 | 116.9 | −1.8 | −16.5 | −39.4 |
| SSA | 294 | 45 | 332 | 449 | 146.4 | 149 | 149.1 | −1.1 | −17.7 | −42.8 |
| Cassava | 170 | 9 | ||||||||
| Yam | 71 | 21 | ||||||||
| Potato | 14 | 3 | ||||||||
| Sweet potato | 26 | 8 | ||||||||
| Other R&Ts d | 13 | 3 | ||||||||
| N Africa & M East f | 23 | 4 | 29 | 36 | 39 | 37 | 36.3 | −0.8 | 1.2 | 3.4 |
| North Africa | 11 | 2 | ||||||||
| Potato | 11 | 2 | ||||||||
| Middle East f | 12 | 2 | ||||||||
| Potato | 12 | 2 | ||||||||
| LAC | 52 | 7 | 83 | 98 | 51.1 | 48.3 | 45.7 | 0.2 | 16.1 | 29.5 |
| Cassava | 28 | 2 | ||||||||
| Potato | 20 | 3 | ||||||||
| Sweet potato | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Other R&Ts d | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
These data are for R&Ts (Roots and Tubers) only; they do not include banana and plantain as the latter are included in Fruits and Vegetables in the IMPACT model. Roots and tubers include cassava, potato, sweetpotato, yams, and aggregated other roots and tubers. The data in bold are the sums for R&Ts for all developing countries or the equivalent for particular regions according to groupings used by IFPRI. Total production is aggregated across irrigated and rain‐fed systems at the national level and aligned with years as reported in FAOSTAT. Per capita food consumption is based on food availability at the national level. Net trade includes negative and positive numbers indicating that a region is a net importer or exporter, respectively, and balances to zero at the global level. Values reported for 2010 are calibrated model results. Projections for 2030 and 2050 assume changes in population and income as reflected in the IPCC's Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2. Climate change impacts are simulated using the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and the HadGEM general circulation model. Further documentation is available at www.ifpri.org/program/impact‐model.
For specific commodities, only production over one million t are listed. As all commodity figures are rounded, regional and sub‐regional totals and sub‐totals may not sum.
Includes East, South. and Southeast Asia and Oceania as per FAOSTAT.
Other R&Ts includes taro, yautia, arracacha, mashua, olluco, yacon and other roots and tubers.
The ex‐Soviet Union consists of Central Asia and is made up of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
North Africa includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and Western Sahara. Middle East consists of Bahrain, Cyprus, Gaza Strip, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. Source: 2016–2018 (FAOSTAT, 2020); 2030 and 2050 (IFPRI, 2019).