Table 1.
Cumulative incidence of complications when the intervention effects diminish or persist over 10 years of the simulation time horizon by intervention group
| Scenario with the diminishing intervention effects∗ | Scenario with the persistent intervention effects† | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC | EXER | CBT | EXER+CBT | UC | EXER | CBT | EXER+CBT | |
| MI | 6.15 (0.36) | 6.17 (0.35) | 6.15 (0.35) | 6.03 (0.33) | 4.80 (0.31) | 4.97 (0.30) | 4.88 (0.31) | 4.64 (0.29) |
| Stroke | 6.49 (0.34) | 6.45 (0.34) | 6.67 (0.34) | 6.61 (0.35) | 4.92 (0.31) | 4.70 (0.31) | 5.51 (0.32) | 4.49 (0.29) |
| Cardiovascular death | 9.02 (0.39) | 8.99 (0.40) | 9.16 (0.40) | 9.00 (0.40) | 6.92 (0.35) | 6.92 (0.37) | 7.37 (0.36) | 6.11 (0.34) |
| Three-point MACE | 15.7 (0.52) | 15.7 (0.53) | 15.9 (0.50) | 15.7 (0.51) | 12.2 (0.46) | 12.2 (0.46) | 12.9 (0.47) | 11.3 (0.45) |
| Revascularization procedure | 13.9 (0.49) | 14.0 (0.51) | 13.9 (0.48) | 13.7 (0.48) | 11.1 (0.44) | 11.5 (0.45) | 11.2 (0.44) | 10.8 (0.43) |
| Congestive heart failure | 24.2 (0.60) | 24.1 (0.60) | 24.5 (0.61) | 24.6 (0.62) | 21.0 (0.57) | 21.1 (0.57) | 21.9 (0.55) | 13.6 (0.48) |
| All-cause death | 17.1 (0.51) | 17.1 (0.53) | 17.2 (0.52) | 17.1 (0.52) | 15.1 (0.50) | 15.1 (0.50) | 15.5 (0.49) | 14.3 (0.48) |
Data are % (SD).
∗
We used the UKPDS-OM risk equations to project gradual convergence trajectories of the postintervention levels of all risk factors for diabetes complications (i.e., HbA1c, SBP, and lipid ratio [TC divided by HDLc]) as the treatment effect wears off over the simulation time horizon.
†
We assumed that the postintervention levels of all risk factors for diabetes complications (i.e., HbA1c, SBP, and lipid ratio [TC divided by HDLc]) did not change over the simulation time horizon.