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. 2021 Mar 22;12:1810. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-21888-9

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — A Relative risk of movement of virus to each province compared to moving to a randomly selected province after 20 generations. The black dots represent the ten largest cities in Thailand. B Relative risk of movement of virus to each grid cell within central Bangkok after 20 generations compared to moving to a randomly selected cell. The cumulative distance distribution for national (C) and central Bangkok (D) of how far cases are from home (purple/brown), the distances of single transmissions (dark blue/dark green) and distances after 20 transmissions (light blue/light green). The dashed line represents the cumulative distribution function of completely spatially random movement. E The number of Bangkok locations with at least one case for different scenarios relative to that in the base model after 20 generations. The different scenarios are: initial introductions are in the most connected location, initial introductions are in the least connected location; no reduced mobility in cases compared to the susceptible population, case/susceptible population mobility is equal to adult mobility and no impact of local immunity on where transmission occurs. F For the same scenarios, the number of provinces with at least one case relative to that in the base model after 20 generations. The boxplots in panels (E) and (F) represent the mean estimate, with the bounds of the box representing 25th and 75th percentiles and the minima and maxima representing 95% bootstrap confidence intervals.