Figure 3.

Interrupted time-series analysis of changes in general practitioner contacts before and after the introduction of UK-wide restrictions

(A) Lines indicate the observed percentage of the denominator population with primary care contacts for each health condition in 2020. Shaded regions indicate the predicted percentage of contacts from the full interrupted time-series model (including data from 2017 onwards). Vertical lines show the adjustment-to-restrictions period from which data were excluded from the analysis (March 8–28, 2020). Tick marks on the x-axis represent the first day of the specified month. (B) 95% CIs of ORs for the estimated relative reduction in contacts as a percentage of the denominator population for each health condition immediately after the adjustment-to-restrictions period (March 29, 2020) compared with the pre-lockdown period (values closer to 0 represent a greater reduction in the estimated percentage of people with general practitioner contacts). (C) 95% CIs of ORs for the estimated effect of time (in weekly increments) since the introduction of restrictions (March 29, 2020)on contacts as a percentage of the denominator population for each condition (values >1 indicate an increasing percentage of population with contacts over time). Results for 2020 only are shown here (see appendix p 24 for full model fit to data from 2017, and appendix pp 17–18 for full relative reduction and recovery ORs and 95% CIs). COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. OR=odds ratio.