Table 3.
Estimated reduction in number of primary care contacts
|
Estimated number of contacts per week per 1 million people in denominator population (95% CI) |
Difference in estimated number of contacts per 1 million people* | Cumulative sum of difference in primary care contacts since March 29, 2020† | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Without COVID-19 and restrictions | With COVID-19 and restrictions | |||
| Diabetic emergency | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 39 (34–44) | 14 (10–20) | <100 | <100 |
| June 28–July 4 | 38 (33–43) | 12 (8–19) | <100 | 330 |
| Acute alcohol-related event | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 13 (11–14) | 16 (15–18) | >–10 | >–100 |
| June 28–July 4 | 14 (13–16) | 24 (21–26) | >–10 | >–100 |
| Anxiety | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 1816 (1695–1945) | 1266 (1148–1396) | 550 | 2300 |
| June 28–July 4 | 1943 (1818–2076) | 1532 (1383–1696) | 411 | 6600 |
| Depression | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 2451 (2285–2629) | 1391 (1241–1558) | 1060 | 4440 |
| June 28–July 4 | 2657 (2484–2843) | 1857 (1657–2080) | 801 | 12 800 |
| Eating disorder | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 44 (41–47) | 29 (26–33) | <100 | <100 |
| June 28–July 4 | 47 (44–51) | 35 (31–39) | <100 | 184 |
| Obsessive-compulsive disorder | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 29 (27–31) | 22 (19–24) | <10 | <100 |
| June 28–July 4 | 30 (28–33) | 25 (23–29) | <10 | <100 |
| Self-harm | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 217 (190–247) | 145 (130–162) | <100 | 307 |
| June 28–July 4 | 254 (226–285) | 205 (184–228) | <100 | 870 |
| Severe mental illness | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 184 (173–196) | 155 (142–169) | <100 | 119 |
| June 28–July 4 | 203 (192–215) | 172 (157–189) | <100 | 391 |
| Stroke | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 88 (83–94) | 56 (50–62) | <100 | 135 |
| June 28–July 4 | 100 (93–106) | 73 (65–81) | <100 | 400 |
| Transient ischaemic attack | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 37 (35–40) | 26 (24–29) | <100 | <100 |
| June 28–July 4 | 40 (38–43) | 31 (28–35) | <10 | 136 |
| Heart failure | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 279 (264–295) | 181 (167–196) | <100 | 408 |
| June 28–July 4 | 308 (292–324) | 223 (205–242) | <100 | 1240 |
| Myocardial infarction | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 45 (42–47) | 35 (33–38) | <10 | <100 |
| June 28–July 4 | 47 (44–49) | 37 (34–41) | <10 | 123 |
| Unstable angina | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 5 (5–6) | 4 (4–5) | <10 | <10 |
| June 28–July 4 | 6 (5–6) | 6 (5–7) | <10 | <10 |
| Venous thromboembolism | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 67 (63–70) | 64 (59–68) | <10 | <10 |
| June 28–July 4 | 72 (69–76) | 63 (58–68) | <10 | <100 |
| Asthma exacerbation | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 4636 (4361–4928) | 3617 (3320–3941) | 1020 | 3780 |
| June 28–July 4 | 4254 (3995–4529) | 2941 (2643–3273) | 1310 | 14 100 |
| COPD exacerbation | ||||
| April 26–May 2 | 7863 (7365–8395) | 4222 (3768–4730) | 3640 | 14 400 |
| June 28–July 4 | 6594 (6147–7073) | 3367 (2919–3884) | 3230 | 43 900 |
Data represent the estimated number of primary care contacts for acute physical and mental health conditions in a hypothetical non-COVID-19 year compared with the number of contacts estimated from our model for 2020 for two week-long periods: April 26–May 2 and June 28–July 4. Estimates of the number of contacts are in a hypothetical population of 1 million people, but the reference populations are condition specific (table 1). COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Difference in estimated number of contacts per million people in the specified week if pre-restriction trends in contacts had continued through the period with restrictions.
Rounded to 3 significant figures to avoid overly precise estimates; we did not intend to estimate the exact number of missed consultations but obtained an estimate of the absolute indirect effect of COVID-19 on different conditions; if the expected difference was <100 or <10 then estimates have been censored for the same reason.