Fig. 2.

Stochastic realizations of the compartmental model based on a thinned MCMC chain from the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and relying on an ‘asymptomatic’ and ‘symptomatic’ social contact matrix composed of 20% of regular work and transportation contacts, no school contacts and 10% of leisure contacts and contacts related to other activities. Shaded areas represent 95% credible intervals. Reported daily number of hospitalizations and deaths are represented by black circles.