Fig. 3.

Stochastic realizations of the compartmental model based on a thinned MCMC chain from the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and relying on an ‘asymptomatic’ and ‘symptomatic’ social contact matrix composed of 20% of regular work and transportation contacts, no school contacts and 10% of leisure contacts and contacts related to other activities. Number of new hospitalizations (left upper and lower panels) and deaths (right upper and lower panels) are shown for all 10 age groups. Shaded areas represent 95% credible intervals. Reported daily number of hospitalizations and deaths are represented by circles.