Table 1.

Numerical results for the eRG fit of the current wave and the CeRG forecast for the next wave. Columns 2 and 3 contain the results for the fit of the current wave using the eRG model⁶, where A is given in number of cases per million inhabitants and ${\gamma }_{\text{eRG}}$ in inverse days. The current wave corresponds to the second one for all countries, except for South Africa, Bolivia and Saudi Arabia for which it is the first. In the last three columns we show the expected peak dates (within a 1 week error) of the current and next waves and the expected value of the number of daily new cases per million inhabitants $I_{\text{strol}}^{\prime }$ during the inter-wave strolling period. Except for Australia, South Africa, Bolivia, Saudi Arabia, Japan and South Korea, we fix $S_{\text{t}}=0.01$, $p_0=0.55$, $p_1=0.6$ and ${\zeta }_1=1/2$, while $\gamma$ and $A_0$ are chosen to fit the second wave (first for South Africa, Bolivia, Saudi Arabia). For countries currently in the strolling period, all the parameters of the CeRG model are fitted.

Country	eRG fits		CeRG forecast
	Current wave		Current peak		Next peak
	A	${\gamma }_{\text{eRG}}$	Date ($\pm 1$ w)	$I_{\text{strol}}^{\prime }$	Date ($\pm 1$ w)
France	$61(6)\times {10}^3$	0.048(5)	2020-11-07	35	2021-11-20
Italy	$41(2)\times {10}^3$	0.075(8)	2020-11-17	37	2021-07-17
UK	$21.3(2)\times {10}^3$	0.0717(8)	2020-11-08	17	2021-07-24
Germany	$20(3)\times {10}^3$	0.058(2)	2020-12-13	14	2021-10-05
Spain	$30(4)\times {10}^3$	0.067(1)	2020-10-31	22	2021-08-04
Switzerland	$40(4)\times {10}^3$	0.10(1)	2020-11-04	70	2021-04-20
Netherlands	$26.1(2)\times {10}^3$	0.0797(8)	2020-10-24	24	2021-06-19
Belgium	$40.7(4)\times {10}^3$	0.121(2)	2020-10-24	70	2021-03-13
Denmark	$12(2)\times {10}^3$	0.062(2)	2020-11-07	9	2021-09-11
Iceland	$9.9(1)\times {10}^3$	0.087(2)	2020-10-10	12	2021-04-20
Canada	$16(2)\times {10}^3$	0.046(5)	2020-12-07	71	2022-01-08
South Africa	11039(35)	0.0704(5)	2020-07-11	18	2021-01-06
Bolivia	12240(20)	0.0442(2)	2020-07-25	3.7	2021-07-28
Saudi Arabia	9560(20)	0.0447(3)	2020-06-20	9.2	2021-04-17
Australia	735(3)	0.1015(7)	2020-07-25	1	2021-04-17
Japan	434(5)	0.094(1)	2020-08-08	3.4	2020-12-02
South Korea	157(3)	0.136(6)	2020-08-26	0.7	2020-11-25