Table 2.

ITSA of the effect of border closure on COVID-19 rates across DRC, Ethiopia and Kenya

		Newey–West
Variable	β	standard error	p-Value	95% CI
DRC
β1	0.001	0.000	0.005	0.000 to 0.001
β5+β1	0.001	0.000	0.016	0.000 to 0.002
β4	−0.005	0.007	0.538	−0.019 to 0.010
β5	0.000	0.001	0.406	−0.001 to 0.001
First day of closure	−0.257	0.055	<0.001	0.148 to 0.365
β3	0.029	0.001	<0.001	0.027 to 0.030
β3+β7	0.024	0.001	<0.001	0.022 to 0.025
β6	0.128	0.071	0.072	−0.012 to 0.267
β7	−0.007	0.003	<0.001	0.002 to 0.008
Constant	−0.007	0.003	0.029	0.001 to 0.0134
Ethiopia
β1	0.001	0.000	0.036	0.000 to 0.001
β5+β1	0.001	0.001	0.016	0.000 to 0.002
β4	−0.008	0.009	0.409	−0.026 to 0.011
β5	0.001	0.001	0.246	−0.001 to 0.002
First day of closure	−0.171	0.048	<0.001	0.077 to 0.265
β3	0.024	0.001	<0.001	0.023 to 0.026
β3+β7	0.037	0.002	<0.001	0.033 to 0.041
β6	0.593	0.146	<0.001	0.305 to 0.881
β7	0.013	0.002	<0.001	0.009 to 0.017
Constant	−0.007	0.004	0.109	−0.015 to 0.002
Kenya
β1	0.000	0.000	0.009	0.000 to 0.001
β5+β1	0.000	0.000	0.021	0.000 to 0.001
β4	−0.001	0.003	0.785	−0.006 to 0.004
β5	0.000	0.000	0.732	−0.000 to 0.000
First day of closure	−0.321	0.073	<0.001	0.179 to 0.464
β3	0.025	0.001	<0.001	0.022 to 0.027
β3+β7	0.028	0.001	<0.001	0.026 to 0.031
β6	−0.019	0.121	0.877	−0.256 to 0.219
β7	0.004	0.002	0.049	0.000 to 0.007
Constant	−0.003	0.001	0.030	0.000 to 0.006

β₁: pre-closure trend, control; β₃: difference pre-closure vs post-closure, control; β₄: difference pre-closure level, treatment vs control; β₅: difference pre-closure trend, treatment vs control; β₆: difference immediately after closure, treatment vs control; β₇: difference pre-closure vs post-closure, treatment vs control; β₅+β₁: pre-closure trend, treatment; β₃+β₇: difference pre-closure vs post-closure, treatment.