Table 3.

ITSA of the effect of border closure on COVID-19 rates across Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa

		Newey–West
Variable	β	standard error	p-Value	95% CI
Ghana
β1	0.001	0.000	0.036	0.000 to 0.001
β5+β1	0.001	0.001	0.016	0.000 to 0.002
β4	−0.008	0.010	0.409	−0.026 to 0.011
β5	0.001	0.001	0.246	−0.001 to 0.002
First day of closure	−0.171	0.048	<0.001	0.077 to 0.265
β3	0.024	0.001	<0.001	0.023 to 0.026
β3+β7	0.037	0.002	<0.001	0.033 to 0.041
β6	0.593	0.146	<0.001	0.305 to 0.881
β7	0.013	0.002	<0.001	0.009 to 0.017
Constant	−0.007	0.004	0.109	−0.015 to 0.002
Nigeria
β1	0.001	0.000	<0.001	0.001 to 0.002
β5+β1	0.001	0.000	0.013	0.000 to 0.001
β4	0.007	0.008	0.329	−0.007 to 0.022
β5	−0.001	0.000	0.162	−0.001 to 0.000
First day of closure	−0.166	0.052	0.002	0.063 to 0.269
β3	0.026	0.001	<0.001	0.024 to 0.028
β3+β7	0.029	0.001	<0.001	0.027 to 0.031
β6	−0.005	0.080	0.953	−0.162 to 0.153
β7	0.003	0.002	0.054	−0.000 to 0.006
Constant	−0.016	0.006	0.008	0.004 to 0.027
Senegal
β1	0.009	0.002	<0.001	0.006 to 0.013
β5+β1	0.007	0.002	0.001	0.003 to 0.012
β4	0.022	0.051	0.663	−0.079 to 0.124
β5	−0.002	0.003	0.535	−0.008 to 0.004
First day of closure	0.696	0.177	<0.001	0.349 to 1.043
β3	0.023	0.005	<0.001	0.013 to 0.032
β3+β7	0.025	0.003	<0.001	0.020 to 0.031
β6	−0.271	0.223	0.224	−0.708 to 0.166
β7	0.003	0.006	0.615	−0.008 to 0.014
Constant	−0.100	0.032	0.002	0.036 to 0.164
South Africa
β1	0.010	0.002	<0.001	0.006 to 0.0139
β5+β1	0.011	0.004	0.011	0.003 to 0.020
β4	−0.023	0.080	0.776	−0.180 to 0.135
β5	0.001	0.005	0.789	−0.008 to 0.011
First day of closure	0.696	0.149	<0.001	0.403 to 0.988
β3	0.016	0.004	<0.001	0.010 to 0.023
β3+β7	0.039	0.005	<0.001	0.030 to 0.048
β6	−0.286	0.189	0.131	−0.657 to 0.085
β7	0.022	0.006	<0.001	0.011 to 0.034
Constant	−0.106	0.035	0.002	0.038 to 0.174

β₁: pre-closure trend, control; β₃: difference pre-closure vs post-closure, control; β₄: difference pre-closure level, treatment vs control; β₅: difference pre-closure trend, treatment vs control; β₆: difference immediately after closure, treatment vs control; β₇: difference pre-closure vs post-closure, treatment vs control; β₅+β₁: pre-closure trend, treatment; β₃+β₇: difference pre-closure vs post-closure, treatment.