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. 2021 Mar 23;23(3):e24925. doi: 10.2196/24925

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©Christopher J Lynch, Ross Gore. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 23.03.2021.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work, first published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research, is properly cited. The complete bibliographic information, a link to the original publication on http://www.jmir.org/, as well as this copyright and license information must be included.

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Experimental design and data overview at the county, health district, and state levels. The generation and aggregation of county-level forecasts are shown on the left path (red), health district–level forecasts on the middle path (blue), and state-level forecasts on the right path (green). The information on the right provides additional detail on each stage in the experimental design. AR: autoregressive; ARIMA: autoregressive integrated moving average; ARMA: autoregressive moving average; HW: Holt-Winters; MA: moving average; MdAE: median absolute error; MdAPE: median absolute percentage error; VA: Virginia.