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. 2021 Mar 24;11:6798. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-85487-w

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Heatmap of HIV-1 infections averted within 5, 10, and 15 years after vaccine rollout, for multiple combinations of vaccine coverage, risk compensation in vaccinated individuals, and the population frequency of the vaccine resistant virus, relative to a counterfactual model scenario with no vaccine. Overall vaccine efficacy is 50% at vaccine rollout. Perverse vaccine outcomes can occur in scenarios with higher initial frequencies of resistant virus and higher rates of risk compensation (decreased condom use), at all levels of vaccine coverage.