Table 1.
Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per infection averted and per DALY averted over 15 years of continuous vaccine implementation. Costs are in 2017 US dollars. The values in bold text (for 100% sensitive virus at rollout) represent a scenario of 50% overall vaccine efficacy but without risk compensation or resistant virus; the overall vaccine efficacy in the 83% sensitive virus at rollout is also 50%, as the per-contact efficacy is 60%.
| Risk compensation (%) | Percent sensitive virus at vaccine rollout | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 100% | 83% | 83% | |||||
| ICER (90% CrI) per infection averted | ICER (90% CrI) per DALY averted | |||||||
| 0 | $528 | (207, 1054) | $157 | (75, 240) | $161 | (71, 400) | $56 | (28, 96) |
| 5 | $661 | (344, 1908) | $181 | (115, 291) | $211 | (116, 454) | $69 | (42, 114) |
| 10 | $1091 | (454, 2669) | $205 | (108, 370) | $296 | (140, 617) | $81 | (41, 154) |
| 15 | $1245 | (413, 6027) | $257 | (160, 434) | $362 | (139, 872) | $107 | (61, 177) |
| 20 | $2144 | (678, 7150) | $341 | (203, 596) | $457 | (213, 1272) | $140 | (65, 282) |
| 25 | $2827 | (*, 21,878) | $396 | (225, 620) | $650 | (249, 1684) | $156 | (80, 295) |
| 30 | $3786 | (*, 96,644) | $435 | (243, 810) | $726 | (285, 2700) | $183 | (90, 393) |
*ICER is dominated (i.e., results in more infections in vaccine scenarios than in the absence of a vaccine).