TABLE 2.
Hazard ratios (HRs) for survival to year 8 based on markers of disease activity measured as change from baseline at the first year and the third year, respectively
| 1-year change/event (n=2097) | 3-year change/event (n=1555) | |||||
| Subjects# n | HR (95% CI) | p-value | Subjects# n | HR (95% CI) | p-value | |
| COPD hospitalisation | ||||||
| No | 1770 | Reference group | 1064 | Reference group | ||
| Yes | 308 | 1.65 (1.34–2.02) | <0.001 | 487 | 1.95 (1.59–2.39) | <0.001 |
| Frequent exacerbations¶ | ||||||
| No frequent exacerbations all years | 1460 | Reference group | 1320 | Reference group | ||
| Frequent exacerbations all years | 618 | 1.30 (1.09–1.54) | 0.003 | 175 | 1.63 (1.27–2.10) | <0.001 |
| Health status (SGRQ) | ||||||
| ≥4 units improvement | 675 | 0.94 (0.76–1.17) | 0.606 | 444 | 0.96 (0.72–1.28) | 0.796 |
| −4–4 units change | 630 | Reference group | 405 | Reference group | ||
| ≥4 units worse | 526 | 1.37 (1.11–1.69) | 0.004 | 538 | 1.58 (1.23–2.03) | <0.001 |
| FEV1 decline+ mL·year−1 | ||||||
| Per 20 mL·year−1 increment | 1916 | 1.01 (1.00–1.02) | 0.044 | 1555 | 1.14 (1.09–1.19) | <0.001 |
| BODE index | ||||||
| Improved | 520 | 0.84 (0.67–1.07) | 0.157 | 244 | 0.76 (0.54–1.08) | 0.126 |
| No change | 623 | Reference group | 409 | Reference group | ||
| Worse | 576 | 1.27 (1.02–1.58) | 0.032 | 565 | 1.52 (1.17–1.97) | 0.002 |
| Persistent inflammation | ||||||
| No markers | 431 | Reference group | § | § | ||
| One marker | 768 | 1.32 (1.03–1.71) | 0.030 | |||
| ≥2 markers | 220 | 1.48 (1.08–2.04) | 0.016 | |||
| Emphysema PD15 decline+ g·L−1·year−1 | ||||||
| Per 1 g·L−1·year−1 increment | 1556 | 1.00 (0.99–1.01) | 0.078 | 1380 | 1.12 (1.00–1.24) | 0.046 |
All models were adjusted for baseline age, baseline body mass index, obstruction, dyspnoea and exercise (BODE) index, and prior COPD hospitalisation. Year 1 change analyses reflect the original ECLIPSE cohort who remained in the study after year 1. Data for the 379 participants who did not consent for 8-year follow-up were censored at year 3, corresponding with the end of their original study participation. SGRQ: St George's Respiratory Questionnaire; FEV1: forced expiratory volume in 1 s; PD15: lowest 15th percentile density method. #: number of participants with available data for the given parameter at the specified time point; ¶: ≥2 exacerbations per year; +: change from baseline used for year 1 analysis, rate of decline used for year 3 analysis; §: not all inflammatory markers were measured at year 3.