Table 2.
Target parameters: posterior summaries from the preferred model
| Maternal infection in trimester one | Maternal infection in trimester two | Maternal infection in trimester three | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of vertical transmission given maternal infection in pregnancy | 47% (26 to 76) | 28% (15 to 46) | 25% (13 to 47) |
| Probability of congenital Zika syndrome given congenital infection | 19% (8 to 37) | 11% (5 to 25) | 3% (0 to 12) |
| Probability of congenital Zika syndrome given maternal infection in pregnancy | 9% (4 to 17) | 3% (1 to 7) | 1% (0 to 3) |
| Diagnostic sensitivity | 42% (18 to 72) | 85% (51 to 99) | 80% (42 to 99) |
| Probability of OPZRO given congenital infection | 42% (22 to 65) | 46% (27 to 64) | 43% (23 to 66) |
| Probability of any adverse outcome given maternal infection in pregnancy | 24% (14 to 37) | 14% (8 to 23) | 11% (5 to 20) |
| Probability of any adverse outcome attributable to congenital infection given maternal infection in pregnancy | 13% (2 to 27) | 3% (−5 to 14) | 0% (−7 to 11) |
Data are median (95% credible interval). OPZRO=other potentially Zika-virus-related outcome.