Table 1.

Input parameters, values, and data sources

Parameters	Base-case values	SE	References
Prevalence (NAFLD) in general population
Age 18–39	0.353	0.013	[17–19, 24]
Age 40–59	0.348	0.002	[17–19, 24]
Age 60 +	0.244	0.004	[17–19, 24]
Prevalence (NASH with significant fibrosis) in NAFLD
Age 18–29	0.183	0.009	[25, 26]
Age 30–39	0.224	0.011	[25, 26]
Age 40–49	0.169	0.009	[25, 26]
Age 50–59	0.164	0.008	[25, 26]
Age 60–69	0.152	0.008	[25, 26]
Age 70–79	0.090	0.005	[25, 26]
Age 80 +	0.090	0.005	[25, 26]
Transitional probabilities
Progression
Normal > F0			[15]
Age 18–39	0.00140
Age 40–59	0.00407
Age 60–89	0.00515
Age 90 +	0.00150
F0 > F1	0.090	0.026	[27]
F1 > F2	0.140	0.036	[27]
F2 > F3	0.070	0.020	[27]
F3 > F4/CC	0.080	0.020	[27]
F4 > DC	0.060	0.010	[27]
F4 > HCC	0.030	0.012	[28, 29]
DC > HCC	0.030	0.01173	[29–32]
DC > LT	0.0003	0.00002	[33–35]
HCC > LT	0.0016	0.00008	[33, 34]
HCC > Death	0.4490	0.02959	[22, 37]
LT > post-LT	0.7993	NA
LT > Death	0.2007	0.01024	[38, 44]
Post-LT > Death	0.0653	0.00333	[38, 44]
Regression
F0 > normal	0.000		Assumption
F1 > F0	0.080	0.026	[27]
F2 > F1	0.190	0.059	[27]
F3 > F2	0.200	0.087	[27]
F4 > F3	0.120	0.023	[27]
Direct medical costs (2019 $)
NASH	89	11	[40]
CC	2121	271	[41]
DC	3916	499	[41]
HCC	4787	622	[41]
LT	18,703	2298	[41]
post-LT	2908	371	[41]

CC, compensated cirrhosis; DC, decompensated cirrhosis; F0, fibrosis stage 0/ no fibrosis; F1, fibrosis stage 1; F2, fibrosis stage 2; F3, fibrosis stage 3; F4, fibrosis stage 4; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; LT, liver transplantation; NAFLD, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; NASH, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis; post-LT, post-liver transplantation; SE, standard error