Table 1.

Results for our forecasting method (average over 10 simulation runs of 1,000 replications per hospital) compared to a moving average forecaster for the occupancy at the departments of the hospitals

	Forecast						Mov. av. forecaster
	ICU			Ward			ICU		Ward
	CR	bias	MAE	CR	bias	MAE	bias	MAE	bias	MAE
LUMC
1 day ah.	0.96	0.07	0.30	0.57	− 0.34	1.04	0.41	0.73	0.37	1.52
2 days ah.	0.94	0.10	0.51	0.64	− 0.69	1.29	0.47	0.86	0.58	1.67
3 days ah.	0.90	0.12	0.67	0.67	− 0.99	1.66	0.53	0.98	0.71	1.85
5 days ah.	0.95	0.11	0.91	0.65	− 1.47	1.96	0.66	1.22	0.98	2.14
Max. 3d. ah.	0.84	0.26	0.53	0.21	− 0.35	1.33	–	–	–	–
Haga
1 day ah.	0.93	0.13	0.62	0.76	− 0.76	1.54	0.50	0.94	1.29	2.68
2 days ah.	0.94	0.16	0.89	0.75	− 1.54	2.43	0.65	1.11	1.60	3.05
3 days ah.	0.94	0.15	1.03	0.66	− 2.23	3.09	0.78	1.26	1.93	3.46
5 days ah.	0.94	0.21	1.41	0.58	− 3.03	4.25	1.03	1.52	2.54	4.26
Max. 3d. ah.	0.78	0.31	0.76	0.19	− 0.18	1.69	–	–	–	–
Rijnstate
1 day ah.	0.98	0.19	0.59	0.80	− 0.27	3.58	0.50	0.85	2.68	4.75
2 days ah.	0.97	0.32	0.84	0.77	− 1.05	4.78	0.63	1.00	3.26	5.21
3 days ah.	0.99	0.42	0.96	0.70	− 1.68	5.79	0.77	1.13	3.85	5.69
5 days ah.	0.97	0.55	1.18	0.72	− 3.30	6.93	1.01	1.36	5.09	6.55
Max. 3d. ah.	0.81	0.45	0.94	0.40	0.48	4.00	–	–	–	–
ETZ
1 day ah.	0.97	− 0.13	0.88	0.84	0.22	1.77	0.49	1.70	2.60	3.56
2 days ah.	0.94	− 0.28	1.29	0.81	0.43	3.07	0.68	1.99	3.21	4.19
3 days ah.	0.94	− 0.44	1.69	0.78	0.75	4.34	0.92	2.25	3.82	4.72
5 days ah.	0.90	− 0.82	2.39	0.72	0.65	6.10	1.44	2.65	5.17	5.73
Max. 3d. ah.	0.78	0.24	1.13	0.28	1.74	2.84	–	–	–	–

CR: coverage rate of the occupancy by the 95% prediction interval, bias: the bias estimated by averaging errors, MAE: mean absolute error