TABLE 1.

Difference in Demand Versus Capacity for Hospitals Bed-Days During a 90-Day Surge of COVID-19, by Rate of Absenteeism and Capacity

	Unoccupied Capacity					Unoccupied Capacity
Absenteeism	50%	40%	30%	20%	10%	50%	40%	30%	20%	10%
Rate (%)	Hospital rate of elective admission=15%					Hospital rate of elective admission=20%
0	−8663	−7206	−5748	−4291	−2834	−9391	−7934	−6477	−5020	−3563
10	−7716	−6404	−5093	−3781	−2470	−8371	−7060	−5748	−4437	−3126
20	−6768	−5603	−4437	−3271	−2105	−7351	−6186	−5020	−3854	−2688
30	−5821	−4801	−3781	−2761	−1741	−6331	−5311	−4291	−3271	−2251
40	−4874	−4000	−3126	−2251	−1377	−5311	−4437	−3563	−2688	−1814
Rate (%)	Hospital rate of elective admission=25%					Hospital rate of elective admission=30%
0	−10,120	−8663	−7206	−5748	−4291	−10,849	−9391	−7934	−6477	−5020
10	−9027	−7716	−6404	−5093	−3781	−9683	−8371	−7060	−5748	−4437
20	−7934	−6768	−5603	−4437	−3271	−8517	−7351	−6186	−5020	−3854
30	−6841	−5821	−4801	−3781	−2761	−7351	−6331	−5311	−4291	−3271
40	−5748	−4874	−4000	−3126	−2251	−6186	−5311	−4437	−3563	−2688

Negative values indicate excess capacity of hospital beds. Analysis based on a hospital admission rate of 207/100,000 among those age 20–60 and 379/100,000 among those age 60+.

Source: Author’s results from simulation analysis.