Table 1. Selected testing strategies ranked by reduction in cumulative infections, with and without confirmatory testing, for scenarios costing less than $10 per person per day*.
Daily symptom tracking assumed.
| Community Prevalence: Low | ||||||||||
| Sensitivity | Specificity | Delay (days) | Frequency (days) | Pool Size | Cumulative Infections Experienced (over 100 days) | Cumulative Infections Caught (over 100 days) | Cumulative False Positives (over 100 days) | Per Person, Per Day Cost Without Confirmatory Testing ($) | Per Person, Per Day Cost With Confirmatory Testing ($) | % Reduction in Cumulative Infections Experienced |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 255 | $ 7.92 | $ 8.78 | 99.8% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 255 | $ 3.96 | $ 5.65 | 99.8% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 8 | 255 | $ 1.32 | $ 6.20 | 99.7% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 35 | 68 | 112 | $ 8.40 | $ 8.63 | 97.4% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 100 | 180 | 112 | $ 3.36 | $ 4.21 | 92.6% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 241 | 388 | 111 | $ 1.68 | $ 4.23 | 82.0% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 515 | 628 | 110 | $ 0.56 | $ 6.58 | 61.5% |
| 0.6 | 0.9 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 560 | 536 | 5034 | $ 6.60 | $ 10.22 | 58.2% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 588 | 649 | 58 | $ 8.40 | $ 8.73 | 56.1% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 666 | 446 | 246 | $ 6.60 | $ 8.96 | 50.3% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 706 | 467 | 246 | $ 1.10 | $ 9.87 | 47.3% |
| 0.8 | 0.9 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 712 | 675 | 2195 | $ 7.00 | $ 8.76 | 46.9% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 877 | 542 | 104 | $ 7.00 | $ 7.66 | 34.5% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 880 | 542 | 104 | $ 2.80 | $ 4.18 | 34.3% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 884 | 543 | 104 | $ 1.40 | $ 3.61 | 34.0% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 899 | 545 | 104 | $ 0.47 | $ 4.52 | 32.9% |
| 0.6 | 0.9 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 916 | 638 | 2198 | $ 2.80 | $ 4.47 | 31.6% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 924 | 551 | 51 | $ 7.00 | $ 7.26 | 31.1% |
| 0.8 | 0.9 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 977 | 631 | 1171 | $ 3.50 | $ 4.44 | 27.1% |
| 0.6 | 0.9 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 1050 | 603 | 1171 | $ 1.40 | $ 2.30 | 21.6% |
| Community Prevalence: High | ||||||||||
| Sensitivity | Specificity | Delay (days) | Frequency (days) | Pool Size | Cumulative Infections Experienced (over 100 days) | Cumulative Infections Caught (over 100 days) | Cumulative False Positives (over 100 days) | Per Person, Per Day Cost Without Confirmatory Testing | Per Person, Per Day Cost With Confirmatory Testing | % Reduction in Cumulative Infections Experienced |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 97 | 267 | 254 | $ 7.92 | $ 9.56 | 93.2% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 112 | 283 | 254 | $ 3.96 | $ 7.23 | 92.2% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 187 | 366 | 253 | $ 1.32 | $ 11.01 | 87.0% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 442 | 723 | 109 | $ 8.40 | $ 9.31 | 69.2% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 480 | 749 | 109 | $ 3.36 | $ 5.50 | 66.5% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 538 | 781 | 109 | $ 1.68 | $ 5.50 | 62.5% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 704 | 823 | 109 | $ 0.56 | $ 7.51 | 50.9% |
| 0.6 | 0.9 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 733 | 698 | 5015 | $ 6.60 | $ 10.28 | 48.9% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 853 | 845 | 57 | $ 8.40 | $ 8.79 | 40.5% |
| 0.8 | 0.9 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 859 | 799 | 2186 | $ 7.00 | $ 8.80 | 40.1% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 863 | 578 | 246 | $ 6.60 | $ 9.43 | 39.9% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 892 | 590 | 245 | $ 1.10 | $ 11.70 | 37.8% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1006 | 624 | 103 | $ 7.00 | $ 7.72 | 29.9% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 1008 | 624 | 103 | $ 2.80 | $ 4.33 | 29.7% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 1013 | 625 | 103 | $ 1.40 | $ 3.90 | 29.4% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1031 | 627 | 103 | $ 0.47 | $ 5.24 | 28.1% |
| 0.6 | 0.9 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1038 | 720 | 2191 | $ 2.80 | $ 4.50 | 27.7% |
| 0.8 | 0.9 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 1062 | 750 | 1158 | $ 3.50 | $ 4.50 | 26.0% |
| 0.98 | 0.995 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 1080 | 645 | 51 | $ 7.00 | $ 7.26 | 24.7% |
| 0.6 | 0.9 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 1134 | 681 | 1161 | $ 1.40 | $ 2.33 | 21.0% |
* Cost calculation assumes a test with a 98% sensitivity and 0-day delay in returning results costs $120, a 98% sensitive test with a 2-day delay in results costs $100, an 80% sensitive test costs $50, and a 60% sensitive test costs $20. All (true and false) positive tests are confirmed using a $100 test. The distribution of positive tests among pooled samples is uniform as is consistent with the homogeneous mixing assumptions of the SIR model, and we assume everyone in a pool that is positive will undergo a confirmatory test.