Table 6. Comparison between the observed and projected daily incidence for Italy and Spain during their respective decay phases, for May and June 2020.
| Date | Location | Observed Daily Incidence | Projection (SI1) | Projection (SI2) | Projection (SI3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21-May-2020 | Italy | 642 | 1501 | 1334 | 1144 |
| Spain | 593 | 1502 | 1301 | 1105 | |
| 21-Jun-2020 | Italy | 224 | 781 | 632 | 468 |
| Spain | 334 | 593 | 455 | 333 |
Assuming serial interval distributions following a gamma distribution with parameters: i) μ = 7.5 and σ = 3.4 (SI1); ii) μ = 7 and σ = 4.5 (SI2); iii) μ = 6.3 and σ = 4.2 (SI3).