Table 2.

Evolutionary Transition Times and Implied Posterior Probability of Reaching Final Transition

Transition times, Gya							Posterior weight $F\left(x_n\right)>\dots$
0th	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	L	N	10−2	10−12	10−24
4.3	4.2	—	—	0	5.8	2	0.068	0.40	0.83
4.2	3.8	—	—	0	5.2	2	0.026	0.25	0.68
4.2	3.8	1.8	—	—	5.2	2	0.041	0.27	0.70
4.2	—	1.8	—	0	5.2	2	0.012	0.18	0.61
4.3	4.2	1.8	—	0	5.8	3	0.0064	0.11	0.43
4.2	3.8	1.8	—	0	5.2	3	0.0022	0.059	0.30
4.2	3.8	1.8	1.2	—	5.2	3	0.0056	0.080	0.34
4.2	3.8	1.8	1.2	0	5.2	4	0.0003	0.014	0.11
4.3	4.2	1.8	1.7	0	5.8	4	0.0027	0.056	0.26
						2	0.42	0.66	0.94
						3	0.27	0.51	0.84
						4	0.18	0.39	0.71
							Prior weight $F\left(x_n\right)>\dots$

A table of evolutionary transition combinations and for each, a proportion of posterior probability assigned to parameters that achieve the final transition with probability >10⁻², 10⁻¹², and 10⁻²⁴

As the number of included transitions increases, the prior and posterior probability of reaching the final transition falls.