Table 1.

Synopsis of our model linking stages in the development of major respiratory virus pandemics to natural phenomena and environmental processes.

Stage	Natural Process	Key Evidence or Reason
Novel virus source	Permafrost melting	Massive reservoir of ancient infectious agents
Sporadic timing	Climate and solar cycles	Semi-regular; seasonality of flu; rekindling
Virus transport	North Polar Jet stream	Rapid onset at similar locations historically
Virus deposition	Rainout; pollution	Viruses and disease linked to particulates
Case growth	UV immunosuppression	Amplification in sunny regions after flu season
Multi-year duration	Atmospheric circulation	Infected hosts increase virus content in air; more permafrost melting augments supply
Historic cessation	Arctic freeze; immunity	Minimal supply with reduced amplification