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. 2021 Mar 29;11:7106. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-86266-3

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Daily total COVID-19 deaths reported in England between 3rd and 22nd April 2020, against the number of potential COVID-19 cases reported through NHS Pathways with a lag of 16 days (between 18th March and 6th April 2020). The black line and grey ribbon correspond to predictions from the regression model and associated 95% confidence intervals. The coefficient of determination indicates that 85.8% of the deviance in reported deaths is linearly explained by NHS Pathways reports.