Table 1:

Input Parameter Description. LN(μ,σ)=log normal distribution with parameters μ and σ. Beta(α,β)=beta distribution with shape parameters α and β. Mean and SD are the mean and standard deviation of the parameters mean, respectively. LB and UB=lower and upper 95% confidence bounds of the mean, respectively.

Parameter	Description	Distribution	Mean	SD	LB	UB
pFailChemo	Annual probability of failing chemotherapy	Beta(45,55)	0.45	0.050	0.353	0.547
pFailRadio	Annual probability of failing radiotherapy	Beta(50,50)	0.5	0.050	0.402	0.598
pFailSurg	Probability failing surgery	Beta(5,95)	0.05	0.022	0.007	0.093
pDieSurg	Probability of dying due to surgery	Beta(10,90)	0.1	0.030	0.041	0.159
μCancer	Cancer specific mortality rate	LN(−1.69,0.4)	0.2	0.083	0.037	0.363
cChemo	Annual chemotherapy cost ($)	LN(9.9,0.1)	20,000	2,005	16,066	23,934
cRadio	Annual radiotherapy cost ($)	LN(9.17,0.3)	10,000	3,069	3,979	16,021
cSurg	Surgery cost ($)	LN(10.05,0.4)	25,000	10,414	4,568	45,432