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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2022 Apr 1.
Published in final edited form as: Am J Obstet Gynecol. 2020 Oct 6;224(4):366.e1–366.e32. doi: 10.1016/j.ajog.2020.10.001

TABLE 3.

Immediate CIN3+ risk after the first screening with HPV, CDC’s NBCCEDPa vs KPNCb

Testing results
CDC’s NBCCEDPa
KPNCb
Screened within the past
5 y
Rarely, never, or unknown
screening (combined)
Rarely or never screened
Unknown screening
HPV Cytology Immediate
CIN3+
risk (%)
95% CI (%) Immediate
CIN3+ risk (%)
95% CI (%) Immediate
CIN3+ risk (%)
95% CI (%) Immediate
CIN3+ risk (%)
95% CI (%) Immediate
CIN3+ risk (%)
95% CI (%)
Positive HSIL+ 49.6 (45.8–53.4) 64.1 (60.8–67.3) 65.4 (61.6–69.2) 60.4 (54.1–66.8) 48.9 (47.2–50.6)
AGC 29.4 (23.4–35.4) 41.6 (35.0–48.2) 45.3 (37.3–53.3) 33.3 (22.0–44.7) 26.3 (23.3–29.3)
ASC-H 25.2 (21.4–28.9) 30.6 (25.7–35.4) 33.8 (28.0–39.7) 22.2 (13.9–30.5) 25.7 (24.2–27.3)
LSIL 4.1 (3.4–4.8) 6.2 (5.1–7.2) 5.2 (4.1–6.3) 8.4 (6.3–10.6) 4.3 (4.0–4.6)
ASC-US 4.5 (4.1–4.9) 6.6 (6.0–7.2) 6.7 (5.9–7.4) 6.5 (5.4–7.7) 4.4 (4.2–4.7)
NILM 2.4 (1.8–2.9) 3.5 (2.7–4.4) 3.6 (2.5–4.6) 3.3 (1.9–4.7) 2.1 (2.0–2.3)
Negative HSIL+ 32.0 (21.4–42.6) 47.8 (38.0–57.7) 50.0 (38.8–61.2) 41.0 (21.0–60.9) 25.2 (18.5–31.9)
AGC 3.0 (1.6–4.3) 7.0 (4.6–9.5) 7.6 (4.8–10.5) 5.1 (0.8–9.5) 1.1 (0.6–1.5)
ASC-H 4.9 (2.3–7.5) 4.7 (1.5–7.8) 5.1 (1.4–8.8) 2.9 (0.0–8.6) 3.4 (2.1– 4.8)
LSIL 1.0 (0.3–1.7) 1.2 (0.2–2.1) 0.8 (0.0–1.8) 2.0 (0.0–4.2) 1.1 (0.6–1.5)
ASC-US N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0 (0.0–0.1)
NILM N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0 (0.0–0.0)

AGC, atypical glandular cell; ASC-H, atypical squamous cells-cannot exclude; ASC-US, atypical squamous cells of uncertain significance; CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; CI, confidence interval; CIN3, cervical intraepiethial neoplasia grade III or greater; HSIL, high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion; HSIL HPV, human papillomavirus; LSIL, low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion; KPNC, Kaiser Permanente Northern California; LSIL, low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion; N/A, not available; NBCCEDP, National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program; NILM, negative for intraepithelial lesion or malignancy.

a

CDC population is at the age of 30 to 64 years who have an HPV test result, which includes primary Papanicolaou test results of ASC-US triaged by HPV

b

KPNC population is at the age of 25 to 65 years who underwent HPV cotesting. Risk estimates are from Egemen et al.9