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. 2021 Mar 31;592(7852):65–69. doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-03325-5

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 1 — a, IAV in global mean NBP (mean-centred and de-trended) as simulated by four ESMs (CCSM4, ECHAM6, GFDL and IPSL) in coupled model experiments with (CTL) and without (experiment A; ExpA) anomalies in soil moisture. Positive NBP indicates carbon uptake. b, Standard deviations of global mean NBP, GPP and respiration and disturbance (ReD) in the two experiments. c, Drivers of change in global mean NBP variance (Supplementary Information section 1). Global mean NBP variance decreases in the experiment with prescribed seasonal soil moisture mainly because GPP variance is reduced. GPP and ReD fluxes are not available for the IPSL model.

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