Table 3.
GDP Changes by Source (Percent Change)
| Literature estimates | Model estimates | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region | Actual GDP change | McKibbin and Fernando 2020 1 | Maliszewska, Mattoo, and van der Mensbrugghe 2020 | ADB 2020 3 | IMF | OECD4 | World Bank | Agriculture | Total economy |
| Argentina | ‐12.5 | [‐6.0,‐0.2] | ‐1.72 | ‐9.9 | [‐10.1,‐8.3] | ‐7.3 | ‐3.9 | ‐13.5 | |
| Australia | ‐4.3 | [‐7.9,‐0.3] | ‐4.5 | [‐6.3,‐5.0] | ‐0.4 | ‐4.4 | |||
| Brazil | ‐6.5 | [‐8.0,‐0.3] | ‐1.72 | ‐9.1 | [‐9.1,‐7.4] | ‐8.0 | ‐0.4 | ‐5.0 | |
| Canada | ‐6.5 | [‐7.1,‐0.2] | ‐2.2 | [‐9.4,‐8.0] | ‐1.8 | ‐7.1 | |||
| Central America & Caribbean | ‐4.6 | ‐1.72 | ‐3.1 | ‐2.1 | ‐9.8 | ||||
| Sub‐Saharan Africa | ‐4.6 | ‐1.4 | ‐3.2 | ‐2.4 | ‐0.4 | ‐7.0 | |||
| China | 1.7 | [‐6.2,‐0.4] | ‐3.6 | 1.0 | [‐3.7,‐2.6] | 1.0 | ‐0.2 | 0.6 | |
| Europe | ‐9.3 | [‐8.4,‐0.2] | ‐1.9 | [‐11.7,‐7.7] | ‐10.2 | [‐11.5,‐9.1] | ‐9.1 | ‐1.2 | ‐7.0 |
| Former Soviet Union | ‐4.9 | ‐5.2 | ‐2.1 | ‐7.9 | |||||
| India | ‐13.0 | [‐5.3,‐0.2] | ‐4.5 | [‐7.3,‐3.7] | ‐3.2 | ‐1.4 | ‐15.7 | ||
| Japan | ‐5.8 | [‐9.9,‐0.3] | ‐2.2 | [‐8.9,‐5.9] | ‐5.8 | [‐7.3,‐6.1] | ‐6.1 | ‐1.1 | ‐5.9 |
| Middle East & North Africa | ‐4.8 | ‐1.3 | ‐4.7 | ‐4.0 | ‐1.6 | ‐5.3 | |||
| Mexico | ‐10.5 | [‐3.8,‐0.1] | ‐1.72 | ‐10.5 | [‐8.6,‐7.5] | ‐7.5 | ‐2.4 | ‐10.0 | |
| Other Asia | ‐2.4 | ‐1.2 | ‐0.8 | ‐4.7 | |||||
| Rest of Southern Hemisphere | ‐8.8 | ‐1.72 | ‐6.3 | ‐1.3 | ‐7.3 | ||||
| USA | ‐4.0 | [‐8.4,‐0.1] | ‐1.7 | [‐10.7,‐7.1] | ‐8.0 | [‐8.5,‐7.3] | ‐6.1 | ‐1.2 | ‐3.8 |
| Global | ‐5.0 | [‐6.3,‐0.2] | ‐2.1 | [‐9.7,‐6.4] | ‐4.9 | [‐7.6,‐6.0] | ‐5.2 | ‐0.9 | ‐5.2 |
Source: Actual GDP changes are from Euromonitor (2021). Other sources are: McKibbin and Fernando (2020); Maliszewska, Mattoo, and van der Mensbrugghe (2020); ADB (2020); IMF (2020); OECD (2020); World Bank (2020); Authors' simulation.
Note: This table describes actual and simulated GDP from various sources including authors' simulation. Actual GDP (Euromonitor 2021) is in the second column, and columns 3 through 8 show estimates from the literature and international organizations. Columns 9 and 10 include authors' simulation of GDP including the contribution of agriculture (column 9) to total GDP (column 10) for each region. The final row of the table shows the Global GDP changes from each source in the table. Superscripts are as follows: 1 refers to a range across seven scenarios; 2 indicates that a single number is reported for Latin America and the Caribbean; 3 refers to a range across three and six month containment scenarios; 4 is a range of a single and double hit. EUR actual GDP changes include only the EU changes. Literature estimates are arranged in ascending chronological order.