TABLE 1.
Forecasting accuracy measures for the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths in the countries where partial lockdown was imposed
| Country | Bulgaria | Greece | Russia | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Models | MAPE | MAE | RMSE | MAPE | MAE | RMSE | MAPE | MAE | RMSE |
| Daily cumulative number of confirmed cases | |||||||||
| PR | 15.82 | 3,166.78 | 3,746.56 | 15.4 | 2,651.9 | 3,072.3 | 0.94 | 10,767.6 | 11,687.8 |
| SVR | 33.94 | 6,680.51 | 6,743.44 | 8.45 | 1,414 | 1,447.4 | 5.91 | 67,351.6 | 74,295.3 |
| DT | 5.32 | 1,066.69 | 1,260.38 | 12.6 | 2,152.6 | 2,453.6 | 3.94 | 44,993.5 | 51,984.9 |
| GBR | 5.36 | 1,073.51 | 1,266.16 | 12.6 | 2,157.9 | 2,458.2 | 3.98 | 45,449.1 | 52,379.7 |
| RF | 5.69 | 1,137.62 | 1,320.95 | 13.5 | 2,305.5 | 2,588.8 | 4.17 | 47,625.9 | 54,279.3 |
| KNN | 5.72 | 1,143.69 | 1,326.18 | 13.7 | 2,332.1 | 2,612.5 | 4.19 | 47,827 | 54,455.8 |
| Holt winter | 0.85 | 171.40 | 223.02 | 2.98 | 509.82 | 573.4 | 0.51 | 5,940.53 | 7,962.28 |
| ARIMA | 1.06 | 215.20 | 297.55 | 0.43 | 71.2 | 82.98 | 0.33 | 3,906.5 | 5,547.78 |
| SARIMA | 0.86 | 175.45 | 253.65 | 0.34 | 55.44 | 69.12 | 0.37 | 4,299.09 | 6,094.87 |
| Daily cumulative number of deaths | |||||||||
| PR | 1.16 | 9.36 | 13.53 | 1.91 | 7.08 | 8.18 | 2.1 | 423.86 | 483.27 |
| SVR | 23.57 | 185.48 | 188.88 | 2.91 | 10.9 | 12.5 | 51.4 | 10,224.3 | 10,314.9 |
| DT | 4.31 | 34.38 | 40.77 | 9.81 | 36.6 | 42.2 | 4.25 | 855.23 | 973.59 |
| GBR | 4.35 | 34.66 | 41.01 | 9.85 | 36.7 | 42.3 | 4.29 | 862.96 | 980.39 |
| RF | 4.78 | 38.03 | 43.89 | 10.7 | 39.7 | 44.9 | 4.56 | 917.51 | 1,028.73 |
| KNN | 4.95 | 39.38 | 45.07 | 11.1 | 41.1 | 46.2 | 4.61 | 926.73 | 1,036.96 |
| Holt winter | 0.39 | 3.12 | 3.99 | 0.56 | 2.08 | 2.62 | 0.41 | 82.7 | 91.38 |
| ARIMA | 1.94 | 15.29 | 16.19 | 1.50 | 5.58 | 6.34 | 0.10 | 21.84 | 27.75 |
| SARIMA | 1.41 | 11.13 | 12.22 | 1.87 | 6.96 | 7.99 | 0.06 | 13.76 | 15.76 |
Three model values were bolded due to those provided best results than other.