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. 2021 Feb 1;84(7):1462–1474. doi: 10.1002/jemt.23702

TABLE 2.

Forecasting accuracy measures for the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths in the countries where complete lockdown was imposed

Country Hubei (China) Iran India
Models MAPE MAE RMSE MAPE MAE RMSE MAPE MAE RMSE
Daily cumulative number of confirmed cases
PR 32.32 22,854.48 25,854.48 5.78 25,669.04 29,622.75 2.55 154,437.44 193,090.93
SVR 0.02 10.80 10.89 17.34 75,997.33 77,097.60 81.43 4,736,407.58 4,743,009.46
DT 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.21 23,112.84 26,477.11 10.08 601,536.69 677,737.28
GBR 0.007 0.27 0.52 5.26 23,316.20 26,654.81 10.10 602,666.34 678,740.12
RF 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.51 24,420.93 27,626.36 10.85 646,264.90 717,732.36
KNN 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.53 24,520.34 27,714.27 10.91 649,748.69 720,870.85
Holt winter 0.0002 0.018 0.019 0.29 1,329.28 1,640.21 0.44 26,939.18 33,528.18
ARIMA 0.40 273.73 335.69 0.75 3,355.12 4,079.23 1.61 97,391.75 119,710.00
SARIMA 0.01 10.8 0.007 0.81 3,638.89 4,365.41 1.32 79,729.27 98,717.20
Daily cumulative number of deaths
PR 37.40 1,687.79 1981.23 4.88 1,245.73 1,534.01 0.93 868.14 908.25
SVR 0.06 2.81 2.81 34.55 8,675.00 8,740.14 6.78 6,325.34 6,625.19
DT 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.84 1,230.38 1,412.56 8.31 7,825.23 8,810.17
GBR 0.007 0.03 0.03 4.88 1,240.93 1,421.76 8.33 7,852.31 8,834.23
RF 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.15 1,309.80 1,482.25 8.90 8,372.49 9,299.65
KNN 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.19 1,318.38 1,489.84 8.94 8,412.23 9,335.44
Holt winter 0.00002 0.00009 0.00009 0.24 60.78 65.94 0.40 387.29 504.58
ARIMA 2.87 129.65 148.38 0.12 30.28 33.31 0.55 531.91 699.18
SARIMA 0.00007 0.0006 0.0007 0.09 22.65 25.87 0.47 452.77 602.94

Three model values were bolded due to those provided best results than other.