TABLE 4.
The averages and standard deviations of the out‐of‐sample forecasted values from October 1, 2020 to October 10, 2020, with the best selected model for each country
| Lockdown types | Country | Model | Average forecasted values (October 1 to October 10) | Average actual values (October 1 to October 10) | SD of forecasted values (October 1 to October 10) | SD of actual values (October 1 to October 10) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily number of confirmed cases | |||||||
| Partial | Bulgaria | Holt winter | 21,068.21 | 22,364.2 | 419.565 | 1,154.95 | |
| Greece | SARIMA | 20,403.24 | 20,454.8 | 1,050.33 | 1,072.37 | ||
| Russia | ARIMA | 1,192,959 | 1,226,702 | 19,193.6 | 33,236.9 | ||
| Complete | Hubei | DT, RF, KNN | 68,139. | 68,139.0 | 0.00000 | 0.00000 | |
| Iran | Holt winter | 471,780.2 | 478,174.1 | 9,701.03 | 11,976.1 | ||
| India | Holt winter | 6,874,084 | 6,725,805 | 272,790 | 219,685 | ||
| Herd | Iceland | SVR | 2,465.534 | 3,070.4 | 37.7329 | 240.709 | |
| Netherland | SARIMA | 125,992.2 | 143,655 | 7,024.40 | 14,957.7 | ||
| Sweden | SARIMA | 93,869.75 | 95,800.3 | 1,116.77 | 1883.34 | ||
| Daily number of confirmed deaths | |||||||
| Partial | Bulgaria | Holt winter | 851.5456 | 859.5 | 17.2964 | 22.6629 | |
| Greece | Holt winter | 426.1323 | 416.3 | 17.4140 | 14.6215 | ||
| Russia | SARIMA | 21,381.99 | 21,528.6 | 425.639 | 506.402 | ||
| Complete | Hubei | DT, RF, KNN | 4,512 | 4,512 | 0.00000 | 0.00000 | |
| Iran | SARIMA | 27,296.69 | 27,319.8 | 578.550 | 660.548 | ||
| India | Holt winter | 106,064.8 | 104,097.2 | 3,558.89 | 2,864.92 | ||
| Herd | Iceland | DT, RF, KNN | 10 | 10 | 0.00000 | 0.00000 | |
| Netherland | SARIMA | 6,341.134 | 6,484.6 | 14.2624 | 51.8977 | ||
| Sweden | DT | 5,864 | 5,892.8 | 0.000 | 3.64539 | ||